STAR-Ensemble SSP5-8.5 Cold Days

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than or equal to 0°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than or equal to 28°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than or equal to 32°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature less than or equal to 32°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System, CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具。本图层包含1950年至2100年以十年为增量的VAR预估数据，且覆盖三种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）。所包含的变量如下： 1. 最低气温≤0°F的年度天数 2. 最低气温≤28°F的年度天数 3. 最低气温≤32°F的年度天数 4. 最高气温≤32°F的年度天数 本图层使用针对美国本土（Contiguous United States）的LOCA2与STAR-ESDM降尺度气候模型数据，后续由美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）下属CICS-NC技术支持单元及Esri完成进一步处理，相关细节说明如下。 针对每个时间节点与SSP场景，已针对三类既定地理单元生成对应统计值：县、部落区域、HUC-8流域。此类汇总数据的生成流程可参阅《Understanding CRIS Data》。 该时间与地理单元组合数据支持16个气候预估结果的加权集合，关于集合中包含的模型及加权方法的更多细节，可查阅《CRIS Data Preparation》。 其他气候变量可通过CRIS官网的数据图库页面获取，或通过下文表格查阅。未来还将推出包含阿拉斯加、夏威夷及波多黎各在内的更多地理单元数据。 ### 地理单元 本图层提供三类地理单元的预估数据：县、部落区域及HUC-8流域。 - 县：基于美国人口普查局2022版TIGER/Line地理数据发布版本 - 部落区域：基于美国人口普查局2022版美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集发布版本，该数据集包含联邦及州认可的统计区域 - HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（United States Geological Survey, USGS）冲刷边界数据集，属于国家水文数据库增强版高分辨率数据集（National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution） ### 时间范围 预估气候阈值指标（如“高温日数≥90°F”）的计算覆盖2005年至2100年的年度数据。此外，还提供1951年至2005年的历史模拟运行数据。历史模拟与未来预估数据已合并为单一时序序列，并按十年进行平均处理。 ### 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景来预估气候整体变化，这类不同的情景被称为共享社会经济路径（SSPs）。本图层提供三种SSP场景：2-4.5、3-7.0及5-8.5（注：STAR未提供SSP3-7.0数据）。 破折号前的数字代表社会行为情景，破折号后的数字代表2100年时与该温室气体浓度情景相关的辐射强迫量（单位：瓦/平方米），辐射强迫越高意味着气候变暖幅度越大。 目前尚无法确定哪种情景最符合未来实际，但SSP 2-4.5目前契合《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方大会（Conference of the Parties 26, COP26）达成的国际气候目标。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴合实际的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警戒场景，用于展示若不采取温室气体减排措施将出现的最坏气候结果。 ### 数据导出 本数据集支持导出为Shapefile、地理数据库（geodatabase）、GeoJSON等格式。