Population Projections

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.\r\n\r\nTZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.\r\n\r\nThe projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the [NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions](https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/information-public-entities/nsw-common-planning-assumptions).\r\n\r\n_The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:_\r\n\r\n* Estimated Resident Population\r\n\r\n* Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)\r\n\r\n* Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex\r\n\r\n* Population in Non-Private Dwellings\r\n\r\nThe projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.\r\n\r\nPlease note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.\r\n\r\n**Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:**\r\n\r\n* [2024 NSW Population Projections](https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-insights/population-projections) – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure\r\n\r\n* [2021 Census data](https://www.abs.gov.au/) - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)\r\n\r\nFor a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the [TZP24 Factsheet](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/population-projections/resource/cadd7bb9-da0f-4409-80ea-db0eb4603b8e).\r\n\r\nFor more detail on the projection process please refer to the [TZP24 Technical Guide](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/population-projections/resource/cb7f1454-dad7-49f1-97b6-679780a1ffa2). \r\n\r\nAdditional land use information for [workforce]( https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/workforce-projections) and [employment]( https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/employment-projections) as well as [Travel Zone 2021]( https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/travel-zones-2021) boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.\r\n\r\nVisualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under [Data and research/Reference Information](https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/data-and-research/reference-information).\r\n\r\n**Cautions**\r\n\r\nThe TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections.\r\n\r\nThe projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.\r\n\r\n*\tTZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.\r\n\r\n*\tThe TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).\r\n\r\n*\tThe projections are not government targets.\r\n\r\n*\tTravel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.\r\n\r\n*\tAs a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.\r\n\r\n*\tMore specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.\r\n\r\n*\tCaution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.\r\n\r\n**Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide**\r\n\r\n**Important note:** \r\n\r\nThe Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the [2024 NSW Population Projections](https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-insights/population-projections/explore-the-data) in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:\r\n\r\n*\tStructural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle\r\n\r\n*\tOccupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI.\r\n\r\nThe above variables are available upon request by contacting **[e-mail]** - Attention Place Forecasting.

新南威尔士州交通局（Transport for NSW）可提供新南威尔士州全域范围内小区域（Travel Zone 或 TZ）层级的人口与住宅预测数据。最新版本为2025年1月发布的《2024年旅行区预测数据》（Travel Zone Projections 2024，简称TZP24）。

TZP24取代了此前发布的TZP22。

本预测数据集旨在支撑新南威尔士州的战略规划，并与[新南威尔士州政府通用规划假设](https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/information-public-entities/nsw-common-planning-assumptions)保持一致。

**TZP24人口与住宅预测数据集包含以下变量：**
* 估计常住人口（Estimated Resident Population）
* 结构性私人住宅（仅适用于新南威尔士州偏远地区，Structural Private Dwellings）
* 按5年年龄组及性别划分的已入住私人住宅人口（Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex）
* 非私人住宅人口（Population in Non-Private Dwellings）

本次发布的TZP24预测数据以2021年旅行区（TZ21）为地理基准，时间跨度为2021年至2031年的年度数据，以及2031年至2066年的5年期数据。

请注意，TZP24基于2024年初可获取的最优数据编制，且纳入了澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS）2021年8月全国人口普查的结果。

**TZP24使用的核心数据输入项：**
* [2024年新南威尔士州人口预测](https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-insights/population-projections) —— 新南威尔士州规划、住房与基础设施部（NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure）
* [2021年人口普查数据](https://www.abs.gov.au/) —— 澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS），数据涵盖按入住状态划分的住宅、按网格区块（Mesh Block）划分的住宅总数、家庭规模、按入住状态划分的私人住宅、人口年龄与性别分布、按常住居住地划分的人口数

如需了解TZP24预测方法的概要，请参阅[TZP24情况说明书](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/population-projections/resource/cadd7bb9-da0f-4409-80ea-db0eb4603b8e)。
如需了解预测流程的更多细节，请参阅[TZP24技术指南](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/population-projections/resource/cb7f1454-dad7-49f1-97b6-679780a1ffa2)。

新南威尔士州交通局开放数据枢纽（Open Data Hub）还提供了[劳动力预测](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/workforce-projections)、[就业预测](https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/employment-projections)相关的额外土地使用信息，以及新南威尔士州2021年旅行区（TZ21）边界数据与匹配文件，均可下载获取。

人口预测数据的可视化内容可在新南威尔士州交通局官网的[数据与研究/参考信息](https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/data-and-research/reference-information)栏目下获取。

**注意事项**
TZP24数据集仅代表基于新南威尔士州政府通用规划假设以及人口与就业预测的一种未来展望。
本预测未针对未来新增交通基础设施设定具体假设，但已纳入当前在建、已规划的土地开发项目以及战略规划的相关因素。

* TZP24为全州范围的战略数据集，在使用细分粒度的结果时需谨慎。
* TZP24的输出结果为2024年初的时点预测数据。
* 本预测数据并非政府目标。
* 旅行区（TZ）层级的输出结果仅为预测数据，仅可作为参考。与所有小区域数据一样，将旅行区预测数据聚合至更大地理单元后，结果将更具可靠性。
* 通常而言，旅行区层级的预测数据仅用于展示一种可能的未来情景。
* 关于各预测变量的数据可靠性的详细说明，请参阅新南威尔士州交通局（TfNSW）开放数据枢纽中Excel格式汇总表格的“自述文件（Read Me）”页面。
* 由于新增了近年的数据源并对方法论进行了调整，在将TZP24与此前的TZP22预测数据集进行对比时需谨慎。

更多注意事项与说明请参阅《TZP24技术指南》。

**重要提示：**
新南威尔士州规划、住房与基础设施部（Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure, DPHI）于2024年11月发布了[2024年新南威尔士州人口预测](https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-insights/population-projections/explore-the-data)。根据DPHI发布的预测数据，已发布的TZP24人口与住宅预测数据集未包含以下变量：
* 大悉尼、伊拉瓦拉-肖尔黑文、中央海岸、下亨特与大纽卡斯尔地区共43个地方政府区域内旅行区的结构性私人住宅数据
* 新南威尔士州全境旅行区的已入住私人住宅数据

此外，在TZP24中，结构性私人住宅变量与DPHI编制的2024年隐含住宅预测数据保持一致，而已入住私人住宅变量则与DPHI编制的统计区域2级（Statistical Area 2, SA2）2024年家庭预测数据保持一致。

上述变量可通过联系**[e-mail]**（请注明关注地点预测部门）申请获取。