Unveiling the Ecological Drivers of Bat-Borne Viral Epidemics: A Climate-Driven Risk Assessment

Bats serve as natural reservoirs for numerous lethal viruses, significantly threatening global public health. Despite the substantial rise in identified bat-hosted viruses, our understanding of their ecological dynamics remains limited, hindering the development of effective preventive strategies for bat-borne viral diseases. We analyzed virus-host associations in 1,350 bat species within a One Health framework to identify how ecological, evolutionary, and socioeconomic factors shape global hotspots of bat-borne viruses. By examining 17 host, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, we found that while socioeconomic factors strongly influence observed viral patterns by driving research effort, the underlying richness of bat-borne viruses, including potentially human-infectious and epidemic viruses (PIVs and PEVs), was primarily driven by temperature seasonality and dietary strategy (phytophagy). Socioeconomic factors, especially human population density, further amplify viral detection and spillover risk. Mapping hotspot regions revealed that PEV-carrying bats clustered in both tropical seasonal forests and densely populated temperate zones. Projections to 2050 showed that climate and land-use change would expand zones of potential human-PEV bat contact inlandward by approximately 13%. Together, these findings highlight the need for integrated, One Health-based surveillance and intervention strategies targeting dynamic risk hotspots in a rapidly changing world.蝙蝠是多种致命病毒的自然宿主，对全球公共卫生构成严重威胁。尽管已发现的蝙蝠携带病毒数量大幅增加，但我们对其生态动态的认知仍十分有限，这阻碍了蝙蝠源病毒性疾病有效防控策略的研发。本研究基于同一健康（One Health）框架，对1350种蝙蝠的病毒-宿主关联进行分析，以明确生态、演化及社会经济因素如何塑造蝙蝠源病毒的全球热点区域。通过分析17项宿主、环境及社会经济变量，本研究发现：尽管社会经济因素通过影响研究投入显著影响已观测到的病毒分布模式，但蝙蝠源病毒（包括潜在人感染病毒与流行性病毒（PIVs和PEVs））的潜在丰富度主要由温度季节性变化与食性策略（植食性，phytophagy）驱动。社会经济因素，尤其是人口密度，会进一步提升病毒检出率与跨物种溢出风险。热点区域制图分析显示，携带PEVs的蝙蝠同时聚集在热带季节性森林与人口稠密的温带区域。至2050年的预测结果表明，气候变化与土地利用变化将使人类与携带PEVs的蝙蝠的潜在接触区域向内陆扩张约13%。综上，本研究结果凸显，在快速变化的全球环境中，亟需针对动态风险热点区域制定基于同一健康理念的整合式监测与干预策略。