REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND UZBEKISTAN'S TRADE RELATIONS WITH CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

This paper examines how Uzbekistan’s trade with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan changed between 2019 and 2024, and what transport and institutional factors explain the differences observed across partners. Drawing on official trade statistics, international databases and regional cooperation reports, the paper calculates compound annual growth rates, shifts in each partner’s share of Uzbekistan’s combined regional trade, an indicative Afghan trade balance, and a product-concentration index for Afghan-bound exports, alongside a descriptive account of transport corridors, border infrastructure and cooperation frameworks. Particular attention is given to Afghanistan, which functions simultaneously as a growing neighbouring market and as a potential transit corridor linking Uzbekistan and wider Central Asia to South Asian ports. The analysis finds that combined turnover with the five partners grew at roughly 14.3 % per year over 2019-2024, yet growth was uneven: Tajikistan and Kazakhstan expanded fastest, while Afghanistan grew slowest and lost 2.5 share points of its share of Uzbekistan’s regional trade, so the portfolio became somewhat more concentrated rather than more diversified. The paper argues that regional integration has improved Uzbekistan’s economic position but has not yet transformed it, and that the proposed Trans-Afghan railway, distinct from the smaller, already-operational Hairatan-Mazar-i-Sharif line, carries substantial upside if security and financing risks can be managed. Specific policy recommendations are offered for trade facilitation, transport investment and risk mitigation.