Extreme Precipitation Hazard Assessment for İzmir (Türkiye): EURO-CORDEX Ensemble-Based IDF Analysis under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 - CRIZ-ERS

This dataset contains the extreme precipitation hazard assessment for İzmir Metropolitan Area developed within the CLIMAAX project. The analysis is based on EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations (0.11° resolution). Annual maximum precipitation was derived from daily precipitation data for the baseline period (1976–2005) and mid-century projections (2041–2070) and (2071-2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fitted pixel-by-pixel to derive Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for 24-hour duration events. Multi-model ensemble statistics (median, 10th and 90th percentiles) were computed to represent model uncertainty. The dataset includes IDF return levels and relative climate change signals (%). File-Level Descriptions IDF Datasets idf_ensemble_median_1976-2005_historical.nc Ensemble median Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) dataset for the historical baseline period (1976–2005). idf_ensemble_median_2041_2070_rcp_4_5.nc Ensemble median IDF dataset for mid-century (2041–2070) under RCP4.5. idf_ensemble_median_2041_2070_rcp_8_5.nc Ensemble median IDF dataset for mid-century (2041–2070) under RCP8.5. idf_ensemble_median_2071_2100_rcp_8_5.nc Ensemble median IDF dataset for late-century (2071–2100) under RCP8.5. idf_change_ensemble_median_*.zip Relative change (%) in extreme precipitation between future and baseline periods for each return period (2–500 years). idf_ensemble_members_*.zip Per-model IDF outputs for all GCM–RCM members before ensemble aggregation. PrMax Dataset prMax_ensemble_members_*.zip Annual maximum 24-hour precipitation for each GCM–RCM model and scenario.These files are the direct input to the GEV fitting and IDF derivation Plots Plots_ensemble_median_*.zip Visualisations of projected changes in extreme precipitation for each scenario and period. Workflow Files Extreme_Precipitation_Hazard_Assessment_izmir.ipynbInteractive notebook implementing the complete hazard workflow. Hazard Dataset Characteristics Climate model source: EURO-CORDEX (EUR-11, 0.11° resolution) Variable: Daily precipitation Duration: 24-hour accumulation Return periods: 2–500 years Statistical method: Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) fitting Ensemble statistics: Median, 10th, 90th percentile Output metric: Absolute return levels (mm) and relative change (%)本数据集包含了在CLIMAAX项目框架下开发的伊兹密尔都会区极端降水灾害评估成果。 该分析基于EURO-CORDEX区域气候模式模拟结果（分辨率0.11°）。研究基于历史基准期（1976–2005年）、世纪中期（2041–2070年）与世纪末（2071–2100年）在RCP4.5及RCP8.5情景下的日降水数据，提取得到年最大降水量序列。 随后，逐像元拟合广义极值分布（Generalised Extreme Value, GEV），以推求24小时持续时长事件的强度-历时-频率（Intensity–Duration–Frequency, IDF）曲线。通过计算多模式集合统计量（中位数、10分位数与90分位数）以表征模式不确定性。 本数据集涵盖IDF重现期水平与相对气候变化信号（%）。 ### 文件层级说明 #### IDF数据集 1. `idf_ensemble_median_1976-2005_historical.nc`：历史基准期（1976–2005年）的集合中位数强度-历时-频率（IDF）数据集。 2. `idf_ensemble_median_2041_2070_rcp_4_5.nc`：RCP4.5情景下世纪中期（2041–2070年）的集合中位数IDF数据集。 3. `idf_ensemble_median_2041_2070_rcp_8_5.nc`：RCP8.5情景下世纪中期（2041–2070年）的集合中位数IDF数据集。 4. `idf_ensemble_median_2071_2100_rcp_8_5.nc`：RCP8.5情景下世纪末（2071–2100年）的集合中位数IDF数据集。 `idf_change_ensemble_median_*.zip`：各重现期（2–500年）下未来时段与基准期极端降水的相对变化率（%）。 `idf_ensemble_members_*.zip`：集合聚合前，所有全球气候模式-区域气候模式（Global Climate Model-Regional Climate Model, GCM-RCM）成员的单模式IDF输出结果。 #### 年最大降水量数据集 `prMax_ensemble_members_*.zip`：各GCM-RCM模式及情景下的24小时年最大降水量，为广义极值分布拟合与IDF曲线推求的直接输入数据。 #### 可视化图表 `Plots_ensemble_median_*.zip`：各情景及时段下极端降水预估变化的可视化成果。 #### 工作流文件 `Extreme_Precipitation_Hazard_Assessment_izmir.ipynb`：实现完整极端降水灾害评估工作流的交互式Jupyter Notebook。 #### 数据集特征 - 气候模式来源：EURO-CORDEX（EUR-11，分辨率0.11°） - 变量：日降水量 - 持续时长：24小时累积量 - 重现期：2–500年 - 统计方法：广义极值分布（GEV）拟合 - 集合统计量：中位数、10分位数、90分位数 - 输出指标：绝对重现期水平（单位：毫米）与相对变化率（%）