Replication Data for: Dynamic Networks of Negotiation for International Climate Change Cooperation

The global response to climate change is negotiated through the UNFCCC’s Conferences of the Parties (COPs). Initially focused on reducing emissions from developed countries, the UNFCCC has shifted toward broader global responsibility. Despite this, its formal institutions and negotiating blocs remain stable and do not fully explain COP successes or failures. This study examines country affiliations at each COP, which are not evident in public votes or documents. Instead, we analyze high-level segment (HLS) speeches, extracting co-mentions of countries to map dynamic negotiation networks. We use Dynamic Network Logistic Regression (DNR) to model these affiliations, revealing shifting informal allegiances. Findings indicate that negotiation affiliations dissolve over time. The European Union exhibits strong internal homophily, while major countries like China, Russia, the US, and Japan decrease future co-mentions, unlike Germany, which increases them. Additionally, network clustering raises the likelihood of co-mentions, while prior co-mentions (inertia) and past exclusion from co-mentions boost future mentions. This approach captures the evolving structure of international climate negotiations beyond formal blocs.全球应对气候变化的谈判进程依托《联合国气候变化框架公约》（United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC）框架下的缔约方大会（Conferences of the Parties, COP）开展。该公约最初聚焦于发达国家的减排义务，如今已转向涵盖更广泛的全球共同责任。尽管如此，其正式机制与谈判集团格局仍保持稳定，且无法完全解释缔约方大会谈判的成败缘由。本研究聚焦于各缔约方大会中的国家阵营归属关系——这类关系在公开投票或官方文件中并无明确体现。为此，我们通过分析高级别一般性辩论（High-level Segment, HLS）的发言文本，提取各国的共现提及关系，以此构建动态谈判网络图谱。我们采用动态网络逻辑回归（Dynamic Network Logistic Regression, DNR）模型对上述阵营归属关系进行建模，以此揭示非正式盟友关系的动态演变轨迹。研究结果显示，谈判阵营归属关系会随时间推移逐渐消解。欧盟内部展现出极强的同质性特征；而中、俄、美、日等主要大国的后续共现提及频次呈下降趋势，德国则与之相反，共现提及频次有所提升。此外，网络聚类会提升国家间产生共现提及的概率；而既往共现关系（即路径依赖惯性）与过往未发生共现的经历，反而会推动未来共现提及的发生。本研究方法能够突破正式谈判集团的局限，精准捕捉国际气候谈判格局的动态演化过程。