CMIP6-based mosartwmpy simulations (inflow, storage) for CONUS hydropower facilities
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This dataset provides simulated historical and future projections of daily inflows and storage (where applicable) for 1114 run-of-river and storage hydropower facilities within the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on a seven-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the state-of-the-art Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NorESM2-MM) are downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) downscaling approaches based on two meteorological reference observations (Daymet and Livneh). The downscaled climate models are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and either the 2020-2059 or 2020-2099 future periods under four socioeconomic scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Ensemble members downscaled using DBCCA, Daymet meteorological observations, and VIC hydrologic model extend through 2099. All other ensemble members extend through 2059. These simulations provide representative inflow into hydropower facilities, as defined by the mosartwmpy point of diversion database, with facilities identified by the ID assigned by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The mosartwmpy CONUS hydropower maps the points of diversion for hydropower facilities to the 1/8th degree uniform grid used by the mosartwmpy model and was used to create this dataset. This dataset is derived to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Pumped-storage hydropower is not included. Version 1.1 is an expansion of Version 1 that added an additional GCM, EC-Earth3, additional socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs), and extended some ensemble members through 2099. Modeling Background This modeling underlies the non-Federal extension of the Department of Energy's Third Assessment of Federal Hydropower, a component of a multi-year study directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act (SWA, Public Law 111-11) of 2009. Simulated hydropower facility inflow and storage were used as input into a hydropower generation model (Zhou et al. 2023, Thurber et al. 2024) to simulate hydropower generation, which were aggregated and published in datasets by Balancing Authority and USGS HUC4 subregions. This dataset complements those hydropower datasets releases and the software release, for reproducibility. Data are provided for an ensemble of traces, each using a different source of simulated runoff and baseflow. A detailed description of the input data and their development can be found in the Third Assessment Report (Kao et al. 2023) and non-Federal extension journal article (Broman et al. 2024). Data Structure The dataset is provided in the parquet data format. Hydropower Facility Data Files Hydropower facility files use the naming convention [run]-daily_flow_storage-[version].parquet where run specifies the input runoff data used and version specifies the collection of input runoff data used. Within each file, data have the following structure: Column Name Unit Description date - date in YYYY-MM-DD format eia_plant_id - EIA hydropower facility ID flow cms simulated facility inflow storage m3 simulated facility storage (where applicable) Related Datasets The dataset is used as input to the wmpy_power hydropower generation model to produce CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1 A companion dataset derived from the same mosartwmpy modeling is also available CMIP6-based mosartwmpy simulations (inflow, storage, release) for CONUS multi-use reservoirs Version 1.1 References Broman D, Voisin N, Kao S-C, Fernandez A, Ghimire GR. Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States. Environmental Research Letters. 2024;19(9):094057. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ceb Hejazi MI, Voisin N, Liu L, Bramer LM, Fortin DC, Hathaway JE, et al. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2015;112(34):10635. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421675112 Kao, S.-C., M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, S. Gangrade, R. Uría Martínez, A. Fernandez, G. Konapala, N. Voisin, T. Zhou, W. Xu, H. Gao, B. Zhao, and G. Zhao (2022), The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, ORNL/TM-2021/2278, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2172/1887712 Thurber T, Vernon C, Sun N, Turner S, Yoon J, Voisin N. mosartwmpy: A Python implementation of the MOSART-WM coupled hydrologic routing and water management model. Journal of Open Source Software. 2021;6. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03221 Thurber, T., Broman, D., Zhou, T., & Voisin, N. (2024). wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation (v1.0.3). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14053013 Voisin N, Li H, Ward D, Huang M, Wigmosta M, Leung LR. On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 2013;17(9):3605–22. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013 Voisin N, Kao S-C, Broman D, Zhou T, Xu W, Ghimire GR, Gangrade S (2025). CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1. HydroSource. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. https://doi.org/10.21951/SWA9505V3/3001439 Zhou T, Kao S-C, Xu W, Gangrade S, Voisin N. Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant. Environmental Research Letters. 2023;18(3):034009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb58d
本数据集基于当前顶尖的耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6）的7成员通用气候模式（General Climate Model, GCM）集合，为美国本土（contiguous United States, CONUS）内1114座径流式和蓄水式水电站提供逐日来流与蓄水（如适用）的历史模拟及未来预估结果。该CMIP6通用气候模式集合包含ACCESS-CM2、BCC-CSM2-MR、CNRM-ESM2-1、EC-Earth3、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MRI-ESM2-0及NorESM2-MM共7个模式成员，基于两套气象参考观测数据集（Daymet与Livneh），通过统计降尺度（即DBCCA）和动力降尺度（即RegCM）方法进行降尺度处理。经降尺度后的气候模式将驱动两个经过率定的水文模型（VIC与PRMS），以模拟预估的未来水文响应过程。 每个集合成员均覆盖1980-2019年基准期，以及2020-2059或2020-2099年未来时段，共包含4种社会经济情景：SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0及SSP5-8.5。其中采用DBCCA统计降尺度、Daymet气象观测数据及VIC水文模型的集合成员模拟时段可延伸至2099年，其余集合成员的模拟时段仅至2059年。 本数据集的模拟来流符合mosartwmpy取水点数据库定义的水电站来流特征，水电站以美国能源信息署（Energy Information Administration, EIA）分配的编号进行标识。mosartwmpy美国本土水文系统将水电站取水点映射至mosartwmpy模型所用的1/8度统一网格，本数据集即基于该映射关系构建。 本数据集为支持美国能源部（Department of Energy, DOE）水电技术办公室（Water Power Technologies Office, WPTO）开展的《安全水资源法案》（SECURE Water Act）第9505条款评估而构建，不含抽水蓄能电站数据。 V1.1版本是V1版本的扩展，新增了EC-Earth3通用气候模式成员、更多社会经济情景（SSPs），并将部分集合成员的模拟时段延伸至2099年。 ### 建模背景 本建模工作为美国能源部第三次联邦水电站评估中非联邦部分的支撑内容，该评估是2009年《安全水资源法案》（SECURE Water Act, SWA，公法111-11）第9505条款指定的多年期研究的组成部分。研究将模拟的水电站来流与蓄水数据输入水电发电模型（Zhou等，2023；Thurber等，2024）以模拟水电发电量，随后按平衡区域与美国地质调查局HUC4子流域进行聚合并发布数据集。本数据集作为上述水电数据集及软件发布的补充，以确保研究可复现。 本数据集基于多组模拟径流与基流数据源的集合轨迹构建，输入数据及其开发细节可参阅《第三次评估报告》（Kao等，2023）及非联邦部分期刊论文（Broman等，2024）。 ### 数据结构 本数据集采用Parquet数据格式存储。 #### 水电站设施数据文件 水电站设施数据文件的命名规则为`[run]-daily_flow_storage-[version].parquet`，其中`run`指定所用的输入径流数据源，`version`指定所用输入径流数据集的集合。每个文件内的数据结构如下： | 列名 | 单位 | 描述 | |----------------|-------|--------------------------| | date | - | 日期，格式为YYYY-MM-DD | | eia_plant_id | - | EIA水电站设施编号 | | flow | cms | 模拟的水电站来流 | | storage | m³ | 模拟的水电站蓄水（如适用） | ### 关联数据集 本数据集作为输入数据，用于wmpy_power水电发电模型，以生成《美国本土基于CMIP6的多模式水电预估 V1.1》数据集。 另有一套基于相同mosartwmpy建模框架的配套数据集发布：《美国本土多用途水库CMIP6模拟（来流、蓄水、泄流）V1.1》。 ### 参考文献 1. Broman D, Voisin N, Kao S-C, Fernandez A, Ghimire GR. 气候变化对美国本土长期水-电规划中水电的多尺度影响. 《环境研究快报》. 2024;19(9):094057. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ceb 2. Hejazi MI, Voisin N, Liu L, Bramer LM, Fortin DC, Hathaway JE等. 21世纪美国减排措施对水资源压力的加剧效应或超过其所减缓的气候变化影响. 《美国国家科学院院刊》. 2015;112(34):10635. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421675112 3. Kao S-C, Ashfaq M, Rastogi D, Gangrade S, Uría Martínez R, Fernandez A, Konapala G, Voisin N, Zhou T, Xu W, Gao H, Zhao B, Zhao G. 2022. 气候变化对联邦水电站影响第三次评估报告. ORNL/TM-2021/2278. 橡树岭国家实验室，田纳西州橡树岭. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2172/1887712 4. Thurber T, Vernon C, Sun N, Turner S, Yoon J, Voisin N. mosartwmpy：MOSART-WM耦合水文汇流与水资源管理模型的Python实现. 《开源软件期刊》. 2021;6. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03221 5. Thurber T, Broman D, Zhou T, Voisin N. 2024. wmpy-power：基于过程的区域水电模拟Python工具包（v1.0.3）. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14053013 6. Voisin N, Li H, Ward D, Huang M, Wigmosta M, Leung LR. 面向地球系统模型集成的次区域水资源管理表征方法改进. 《水文与地球系统科学》. 2013;17(9):3605-3622. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013 7. Voisin N, Kao S-C, Broman D, Zhou T, Xu W, Ghimire GR, Gangrade S. 2025. 《美国本土基于CMIP6的多模式水电预估 V1.1》. HydroSource. 橡树岭国家实验室，美国田纳西州橡树岭. https://doi.org/10.21951/SWA9505V3/3001439 8. Zhou T, Kao S-C, Xu W, Gangrade S, Voisin N. 气候变化对年内水电发电的影响：美国联邦水电站多模式评估. 《环境研究快报》. 2023;18(3):034009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb58d
