Robust group- but limited individual-level (longitudinal) reliability and insights into cross-phases response prediction of conditioned fear

Here we follow the call to target measurement reliability as a key prerequisite for individual-level predictions in translational neuroscience by investigating i) longitudinal reliability at the individual and ii) group level, iii) cross-sectional reliability and iv) response predictability across experimental phases. 120 individuals performed a fear conditioning paradigm twice six month apart. Analyses of skin conductance responses, fear ratings and BOLD-fMRI with different data transformations and included numbers of trials were conducted. While longitudinal reliability was generally poor to moderate at the individual level, it was good for acquisition but not extinction at the group-level. Cross-sectional reliability was satisfactory. Higher responding in preceding phases predicted higher responding in subsequent experimental phases at a weak to moderate level depending on data specifications. In sum, the results suggest the feasibility of individual-level predictions for (very) short time intervals (e.g., cross-phases) while predictions for longer time intervals may be problematic.本研究响应了转化神经科学（translational neuroscience）领域中将测量信度作为个体水平预测核心前提的呼吁，通过考察以下四方面内容展开：（一）个体水平的纵向信度；（二）群体水平信度；（三）横断面信度；（四）各实验阶段的反应可预测性。120名被试在间隔六个月的两个时间点各完成一次恐惧条件化范式（fear conditioning paradigm）。本研究针对皮肤电反应（skin conductance responses）、恐惧评分（fear ratings）以及血氧水平依赖功能磁共振成像（BOLD-fMRI）开展分析，涵盖了多种数据转换方式与不同的纳入试次数量标准。尽管个体水平的纵向信度整体处于较差至中等水平，但群体水平下，恐惧习得阶段的信度良好，而消退阶段的信度则未达良好水平。横断面信度表现令人满意。前一实验阶段的更高反应强度，可在较弱至中等程度上预测后一实验阶段的反应强度，这一关联强度取决于具体的数据处理规范。综上，本研究结果表明，针对（极）短时间间隔（如跨实验阶段）的个体水平预测具备可行性，而针对较长时间间隔的个体水平预测则可能存在局限性。