Projected internal climate migrants globally 2050, by region

More than 170 million people worldwide may be internally displaced by 2050, due to slow-onset impacts of climate change. This is based on a pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse gases emissions and unequal development. In a more climate-friendly scenario, this figure would still add up to some 125 million climate migrants, while a more inclusive development would lead to roughly 78 million migrants. In all three scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa would see the largest number of displacements resulting from shifts in water availability, crop productivity, and sea level rise within the six regions evaluated.

截至2050年，全球可能因气候变化缓慢影响而导致内部流离失所的人口将超过1.7亿。此预测基于对温室气体排放量高且发展不均衡的悲观情景。在更为友好的气候情景下，这一数字也将达到约1.25亿气候移民，而在更具包容性的发展模式下，移民数量将大致为7800万。在所有三种情景中，撒哈拉以南非洲都将因评估区域内水资源分布、农作物产量和海平面上升的变化而面临最多的流离失所问题。