Data for: Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive interventions in East Africa

This perspective discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, in 2022, 23 million east Africans faced starvation, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution-based insights can be combined with the latest dynamic models to predict droughts at eight-month lead-times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro-pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “Early Warning for All” plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting acti..., This data set draws from four widely used sources: the Climate Hazard Center Infrared Precipitation with Stations archive (CHIRPS), the NOAA Extended Reconstruction sea surface temperature data set (version 5), seasonal SST forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and projected SST time-series from Phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). While all of these data are publicly available, we pull together here all the salient time series supporting the basic results of our paper. The NMME seasonal climate forecasts are based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models, intialized monthly with observed conditions. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models in the CMIP6 archive, on the other hand, are initialized in the early 19th century, and then run into the future, constrained by changes in aerosols and greenhouse gasses. The NMME provide operational forecasts. The CMIP6 provides climate change simulations.
The data are organized in a spreadsheet with tabs corre..., This spreadsheet should be accessible via Excel or Google sheets.