Reliability assessment of null allele detection: inconsistencies between and within different methods

Microsatellite loci are widely used in population genetic studies, but the presence of null alleles may lead to biased results. Here, we assessed five methods that indirectly detect null alleles and found large inconsistencies among them. Our analysis was based on 20 microsatellite loci genotyped in a natural population of Microtus oeconomus sampled during 8 years, together with 1200 simulated populations without null alleles, but experiencing bottlenecks of varying duration and intensity, and 120 simulated populations with known null alleles. In the natural population, 29% of positive results were consistent between the methods in pairwise comparisons, and in the simulated data set, this proportion was 14%. The positive results were also inconsistent between different years in the natural population. In the null-allele-free simulated data set, the number of false positives increased with increased bottleneck intensity and duration. We also found a low concordance in null allele detecti...