Modelled altitudinal vegetation belts for 2085 with dry future climate

This map shows the altitudinal vegetation belts of forest vegetation in Switzerland for the period 2070-2099 assuming a dry future climate. The following altitudinal vegetation belts only occur in the southern valleys: «mediterranean», «hyperinsubric», «colline with beech», and «lower/upper montane». The map «Modelled altitudinal vegetation belts for 1995» serves as a basis for the shift of the altitudinal vegetation belts into the future. Among the representative concentration pathways, RCP 8.5 with the model combination CLMCOM-CCLM5_HADGEM_EUR44 was selected as a «dry» model (NCCS 2018). This model projects an average warming of 4.4 °C (northern and southern Switzerland) and a reduction in precipitation of 17.0% (northern Switzerland) or 24.9% (southern Switzerland) for the months April-August, which are considered most relevant for the climate suitability of trees, compared to the period 1981-2010 (Remund 2020). The natural upper timberline was also modelled using an analogous procedure (Könz et al. 2021). --- Source: Zischg et al. (subm.)本地图展示了假设未来干旱气候情景下，2070-2099年瑞士森林植被的海拔植被带分布。仅在南部山谷出现的海拔植被带包含：「地中海带」、「超因苏布里亚带」、「山毛榉丘陵带」以及「低/中山地带」。本研究以《1995年模拟海拔植被带》地图作为未来海拔植被带迁移的基准底图。在代表性浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways，以下简称RCP）中，选取搭配模型组合CLMCOM-CCLM5_HADGEM_EUR44的RCP 8.5情景作为「干旱」模型（NCCS 2018）。相较于1981-2010年基准期，该模型预估瑞士南北全境平均升温4.4℃，且在对树木气候适宜性最为关键的4-8月，北部瑞士降水量将减少17.0%，南部瑞士则减少24.9%（Remund 2020）。天然林木上限亦通过类似方法完成建模（Könz et al. 2021）。数据来源：Zischg等人（待刊）