Files associated with: Migration-based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

Aim
Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometers this century. We simulated potential migration considering species’ life history and traits for 10 tree species and their ability to track climatically suitable habitat.
Location
Eastern Canada, covering ~3.7 million km2
Methods
We simulated migration-constrained range shifts through 2100 using a hybrid approach combining projections of climatically suitable habitat based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for three time periods and two species distribution modelling approaches with process-based models parameterized using data related to dispersal ability and generation time. We developed a unique ‘migration kernel’ that uses seed dispersal traits and observed migration velocities to obtain kernel shape and dispersal probabilities. We then calculated lags between the migration-constrained range limits obtained thro...

研究目标 物种分布模型（species distribution models）通常预测，本世纪北美东部树木的气候适宜生境将迁移数百公里。本研究针对10个树种，结合物种的生活史与功能性状以及追踪气候适宜生境的能力，模拟了其潜在的迁移过程。
研究区域 加拿大东部区域，总面积约370万平方千米。
研究方法 本研究采用混合建模方案，模拟至2100年受迁移约束的分布范围变动：该方案整合了三个时期下两种典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5、RCP8.5）的气候适宜生境预测结果，以及两种结合基于过程的模型（process-based models）的物种分布建模方法，其中基于过程的模型的参数通过扩散能力与世代时间相关数据进行标定。本研究构建了一种独特的「迁移核（migration kernel）」，该方法利用种子扩散性状与观测到的迁移速度来确定核形态与扩散概率。随后计算了通过……得到的受迁移限制的分布范围边界之间的滞后。