District heating with complexity: Anticipating unintended consequences in the transition towards a climate-neutral city in the Netherlands

This is an accompanying data folder for the paper entitled " District heating with complexity: Anticipating unintended consequences in the transition towards a climate-neutral city in the Netherlands". This data folder includes the data collection and analysis methods that we have used in our research.

Urban heating systems operate in densely populated areas, which gives rise to all kinds of socio-technical interdependencies. Such interdependencies influence pathways towards reaching carbon-neutrality goals, and result in policy resistance. Understanding these influences supports researchers and decision-makers to recognize systemic patterns that affect changes in urban energy systems, for example in terms of policy resistance, bottlenecks and delays during urban transitions. This research investigates the lessons learned from a project conducted in Rotterdam: a high-density city in the Netherlands which is in a unique situation as it is already switching from natural gas to district heating. We use qualitative system dynamics models to recognize indirect consequences from policy interdependencies during Rotterdam’s substitution of natural gas with district heating and understand the relation between more technologically oriented and policy-oriented policies. We use participative modeling techniques to support transition governance in cities. Our findings suggest that, on the one hand, the national and urban strategies in the Netherlands can activate mechanisms that can support cities with district heating systems such as Rotterdam. On the other hand, the same strategies could also lead to a potential rivalry between energy efficiency and energy security policies, which are both crucial goals towards carbon-neutral cities. Participative modelling provides policy makers with an analytical tool to detect systemic dependencies via joint qualitative scenario building, which in turn can be used to prevent competition among different energy policy objectives which may prolong the use of carbon-heavy systems and displace investments from energy efficiency and renewable heating systems.

本数据集文件夹配套于题为《区域供热的复杂性：预判荷兰碳中和城市转型中的意外后果》（District heating with complexity: Anticipating unintended consequences in the transition towards a climate-neutral city in the Netherlands）的学术论文，收录了本研究采用的全部数据采集与分析方法。
城市供热系统运行于人口稠密区域，由此催生各类社会技术互依关系（socio-technical interdependencies）。此类互依关系会对碳中和目标的实现路径产生影响，并引发政策抵触（policy resistance）。厘清此类影响，有助于研究者与决策者识别影响城市能源系统变革的系统性模式，例如城市转型过程中的政策抵触、瓶颈与延迟问题。本研究以荷兰高密度城市鹿特丹为调研案例，该市正处于从天然气向区域供热（district heating）转型的独特阶段。我们采用定性系统动力学模型（qualitative system dynamics models），分析鹿特丹在以区域供热替代天然气的过程中，政策互依关系所引发的间接后果，并厘清技术导向型政策与政策导向型政策之间的内在关联。此外，我们运用参与式建模技术（participative modeling techniques），为城市转型治理提供支持。
研究结果显示，一方面，荷兰的国家与城市战略能够激活相关机制，为鹿特丹这类已部署区域供热系统的城市提供支持；另一方面，此类战略亦可能引发能源效率（energy efficiency）政策与能源安全（energy security）政策之间的潜在竞争——而这两类政策均为实现碳中和城市的核心目标。参与式建模可为政策制定者提供分析工具，通过联合定性情景构建（scenario building）识别系统性互依关系，进而防范不同能源政策目标间的冲突，此类冲突可能延长高碳排放系统（carbon-heavy systems）的使用周期，并挤占能源效率与可再生供热系统（renewable heating systems）的投资空间。