Causality between health care spending and economic growth in Southern African countries: an applied study using a causality analysis, co-integration test

This study aims to examine the causal relationship between health spending and economic growth in Southern African countries over the period 2000 to 2023, addressing the relative scarcity of regional empirical evidence. The research employs panel cointegration, Granger causality tests, and FMOLS estimations to analyze the short- and long-run dynamics between these variables. The results indicate that the short-term impact of health spending on growth remains limited, except for specific interventions such as the expansion of clean fuel usage. In the long run, a bidirectional relationship was identified, consistent with the theoretical foundations of Human Capital Theory and Wagner’s Law, with varying significance and effect strength across the sampled countries. These findings confirm that health investment reinforces sustainable growth through the human capital channel, provided it is directed efficiently. The study fills a critical knowledge gap by providing a regional perspective on health as a development tool, supporting policymakers in designing effective resource allocation strategies. Finally, the study acknowledges limitations regarding data availability and institutional factors, pointing to future research opportunities focused on linking sustainable health investment to governance and human development indicators across the African continent.本研究旨在考察2000年至2023年间南部非洲国家卫生支出与经济增长的因果关系，以填补该区域实证研究证据相对匮乏的研究空白。本研究采用面板协整（panel cointegration）、格兰杰因果检验（Granger causality tests）以及完全修正最小二乘（FMOLS）估计方法，分析二者间的短期与长期动态关联。研究结果表明，卫生支出对经济增长的短期影响整体有限，仅在清洁燃料使用推广等特定干预场景中存在例外。长期维度下，本研究识别出二者存在双向因果关系，该结果契合人力资本理论（Human Capital Theory）与瓦格纳法则（Wagner’s Law）的理论基础，且样本国家间该关系的显著性与效应强度存在异质性。上述研究结论证实，若卫生投资配置高效，可通过人力资本路径助推可持续增长。本研究从区域视角将卫生视作发展工具，填补了关键的学术认知空白，可为政策制定者设计高效资源配置策略提供理论支撑。最后，本研究指出了数据可得性与制度因素层面的研究局限，并提出未来研究方向：可聚焦于将非洲大陆范围内的可持续卫生投资与治理水平及人类发展指标相挂钩。