Knowns and unknowns in future human pressures on the ocean

Growing demands on ocean resources are placing increasing pressure on ocean ecosystems. To assess the current state of knowledge of future human pressures on the ocean, we conducted a literature review of recent and projected trends of 25 anthropogenic pressures, comprising most of the identified human pressures on the global oceans. To better understand gaps in the data, we developed a comprehensive framework of the activities contributing to each pressure. All pressures were allocated to five categories (biological disruption, disturbance, and removal, altered ocean chemistry, pollution, and climate pressures). All pressures are expected to worsen in the future under business-as-usual scenarios (or similar) based on past trajectories and/or models of future scenarios. Eight of the pressures assessed have not been projected into the future (diseases and pathogens, introduced coastal wildlife predation, disruption to sediment dynamics, wildlife strikes, organic and inorganic chemical po..., A list of anthropogenic pressures (n=25) and corresponding activities was pre-determined and defined, building on similar efforts to catalog pressures (Halpern et al., 2007; O’Hara and Halpern 2022). The summarized list is presented in Figure 1 and the full description of each pressure is in the Supporting Information. This was followed by a scoping review (Collins et al., 2015) to identify available publications on projected ocean pressures at a global scale that had either quantitative or qualitative trend outputs. The literature search was completed between February and May 2022, using the SCOPUS database. Academic journal articles, books, reports, and grey literature published between 2000-2022, in English, were included. Word search criteria (of titles) included: (global* OR world OR ocean OR coast*) AND (forecast* OR project* OR trend OR predict* OR estimate* OR ensemble OR review); with additional keywords according to each pressure (e.g., “sea level rise”). The results of the da..., , # Knowns and unknowns in future human pressures on the ocean [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw) ## Authors O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa. **Corresponding author:** [[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail]) Melanie Frazier National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. Amanda T. Lombard Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa. Benjamin S. Halpern National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA. ## **File list** Vargas Fonseca Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean data.xlsx ## **File description** We conducted a literature review of 86 articl...人类对海洋资源的需求与日俱增，给海洋生态系统带来了愈发沉重的压力。为评估当前学界对未来海洋人类活动压力的认知现状，我们针对25种人为压力源（涵盖全球海洋已被识别的绝大多数人类活动压力）的近期趋势与预测走向开展了文献综述。为更好地厘清数据层面的研究缺口，我们构建了一套覆盖各压力源对应人类活动的综合分析框架。所有压力源均被划分为五大类别：生物干扰、破坏与移除、海洋化学性质改变、污染以及气候压力。基于过往发展轨迹与未来情景模型，在常规发展情景（business-as-usual scenarios）下，所有压力源预计在未来均会加剧。本次评估的25种压力源中，有8种尚未开展未来情景预测（包括疾病与病原体、外来海岸野生动物捕食、沉积物动力系统破坏、野生动物撞击、有机与无机化学毒物……）。 我们基于此前同类压力源编目工作（Halpern等人，2007年；O’Hara与Halpern，2022年），预先确定并定义了包含25种人为压力源及其对应人类活动的清单。整理后的清单详见图1，各压力源的完整说明请见补充材料。随后，我们依据范围综述方法（Collins等人，2015年），筛选出全球尺度下、包含定量或定性趋势结果的海洋压力源预测相关公开文献。 本次文献检索于2022年2月至5月间通过SCOPUS数据库（SCOPUS）完成，纳入2000年至2022年间发表的英文学术期刊论文、专著、报告以及灰色文献。标题词检索规则设置为：(global* OR world OR ocean OR coast*) AND (forecast* OR project* OR trend OR predict* OR estimate* OR ensemble OR review)，并根据各压力源添加对应关键词（例如"海平面上升"）。本次检索的结果…… # 海洋未来人类活动压力的已知与未知 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p8cz8w9zw) ## 作者 O. 亚历杭德拉·巴尔加斯-丰塞卡 南非纳尔逊·曼德拉大学海岸与海洋研究所，伊丽莎白港（Gqeberha） **通讯作者：** [[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail]) 梅拉妮·弗雷泽 美国加利福尼亚大学圣巴巴拉分校国家生态分析与合成中心 阿曼达·T. 隆巴德 南非纳尔逊·曼德拉大学海岸与海洋研究所，伊丽莎白港（Gqeberha） 本杰明·S. 哈尔彭 美国加利福尼亚大学圣巴巴拉分校国家生态分析与合成中心；美国加利福尼亚大学圣巴巴拉分校布伦环境科学与管理学院 ## 文件清单 Vargas Fonseca Knowns and Unknowns in Future Human Pressures on the Ocean data.xlsx ## 文件说明 我们针对86篇文献开展了文献综述