CBAM transitional-period evaluation: policy ledgers, event-study estimates and analysis code (China-EU, 2018-2025)

Replication archive for a triple-difference evaluation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) over its transitional period, between the July 2021 proposal and the start of charging in January 2026. CONTENTS. The stage-specific 758-product universe (377 covered, 381 same-chapter controls); hand-built ledgers of overlapping EU, Chinese, US and UK measures with source references for every entry, including China's export-VAT rebate removals transcribed at source product-code level from MOF/STA Announcements 2021 No.16, 2021 No.25 and 2024 No.15; the reporting mask; expected-liability inputs; quarterly event-study coefficient vectors and full HS6-clustered covariance matrices for both trade value and the participation margin, under two control sets; Rambachan-Roth relative-magnitudes and smoothness inference grids with breakdown values; a 32-row specification curve; and the complete analysis and build code with a driver script and pinned dependency versions. NOT INCLUDED. Raw UN Comtrade and Eurostat COMEXT files are not redistributed, because their reuse is governed by the source services rather than by the author. The included extraction scripts retrieve them from the official endpoints, and every extraction parameter is logged, so the download is reproducible. VERIFICATION. An automated validator asserts 64 quantities reported in the manuscript against the machine-readable results file and fails the build on any mismatch. LICENCE. Code is released under MIT; data files under CC BY 4.0. Underlying trade statistics remain subject to UN Comtrade and Eurostat terms.