Encouraging Loyalty and Defection: The Impact of Campaigns on Tactical Voting in Britain

I study the impact of party campaigns on tactical voting, focusing on voters with tactical incentives. Focusing on three UK Elections, I exploit panel data within each election to address endogeneity in party behavior, which would otherwise bias the estimates of campaign effects. My findings show that party contacts during campaigns have an influence in encouraging loyalty to preferred non-viable parties and defection to alternative viable ones. These findings are important as relatively little is known about what influences voters' decision to cast tactical votes, beyond their demographic characteristics and the electoral circumstances they may find themselves in.本研究聚焦于具备战术投票（tactical voting）动机的选民，探讨政党竞选活动对战术投票行为的影响。本研究以三次英国大选为研究样本，利用每一轮选举内的面板数据（panel data）处理政党行为的内生性（endogeneity）问题；若未对该内生性问题加以控制，将导致竞选活动影响的估计结果产生偏误。研究结果表明，竞选期间政党与选民的接触互动，能够促使选民忠于自身偏好的无胜算政党，同时引导选民转向其他具备胜算的替代政党。当前学界对战术投票决策影响因素的认知多局限于选民的人口统计特征与所处选举情境，除此之外关于其他影响因素的相关研究相对匮乏，因此本研究的发现具备重要学术价值。