Data from: Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest

AbstractCanada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) form a keystone predator-prey cycle that has large impacts on the North-American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare cause-specific mortality, behaviour, and prevailing weather, we demonstrate that hare mortality risk is strongly influenced by variation in snow conditions. Although predation risk from lynx was largely unaffected by snow conditions, coyote (Canis latrans) predation increased in shallow snow. Maximum snow depth in our study area has decreased 33% over the last two decades and predictions based on prolonged shallow snow indicate future hare survival could resemble that seen during population declines. Our results indicate that climate change could disrupt cyclic dynamics in the boreal forest.

**摘要**：加拿大猞猁（Lynx canadensis）与雪兔（Lepus americanus）构成了关键捕食者-猎物循环系统，对北美北方针叶林的脊椎动物群落具有显著影响。雪兔与猞猁均适应多雪的冬季环境，但气候变化引发的雪况变化可能降低雪兔存活率，并改变该循环系统的动态。本研究通过对雪兔的死因特异性死亡率、行为及研究区域的实时天气进行详细监测，证实雪兔的死亡风险受雪况变化的显著影响。尽管猞猁带来的捕食风险基本不受雪况影响，但郊狼（Canis latrans）的捕食压力在浅雪环境中显著升高。过去二十年间，本研究区域的最大积雪深度已下降33%；基于长期浅雪情景的预测显示，未来雪兔的存活率可能会趋近于种群数量下降时期的水平。本研究结果表明，气候变化可能会破坏北方针叶林内的捕食者-猎物循环动态。