Autopolyploid establishment depends on life history strategy and the mating outcomes of clonal architecture

Polyploidy is a significant component in the evolution of many taxa, particularly plant groups. However, new polyploids face substantial fitness disadvantages due to a lack of same-cytotype mates, and the factors promoting or preventing polyploid establishment in natural populations are often unclear. We develop spatially explicit agent-based simulation models to test the hypothesis that a perennial life history and clonal propagation facilitate the early stages of polyploid establishment and persistence. Our models show that polyploids are more likely to establish when they have longer lifespans than diploids, especially when self-fertilization rates are high. Polyploids that combine sexual and clonal reproduction can establish across a wide range of life histories, but their success is moderated by clonal strategy. By tracking individuals and mating events we reveal that clonal architecture has a substantial impact on the spatial structure of the mixed diploid-polyploid population dur...

多倍性（polyploidy）是诸多类群（taxa）演化进程中的关键组成部分，尤以植物类群为甚。然而，新产生的多倍体由于缺乏同细胞型（cytotype）交配个体，会面临显著的适合度劣势；而在自然种群中，推动或阻碍多倍体建立的相关因子往往尚不明确。本研究构建基于智能体（agent）的空间显式模拟模型，以验证“多年生生活史与无性繁殖（clonal propagation）可助力多倍体建立与种群存续的早期阶段”这一假说。模型结果表明，相较于二倍体（diploid），多倍体的寿命更长时，其建立成功率更高，尤其在自交率（self-fertilization rates）较高的场景下。兼具有性繁殖与无性繁殖的多倍体，可在宽泛的生活史范围内完成种群建立，但其成功表现会受到无性繁殖策略的调节。通过追踪个体与交配事件，本研究揭示，无性繁殖架构对混合二倍体-多倍体种群的空间结构具有显著影响，（原文此处截断）