Omicron BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2): High Potential for Becoming the Next Dominant Variant

The
Omicron variant has three subvariants: BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1),
BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2), and BA.3 (B.1.1.529.3). BA.2 is found to be able
to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1.
An important question is whether BA.2 or BA.3 will become a new dominating
“variant of concern”. Currently, no experimental data
has been reported about BA.2 and BA.3. We construct a novel algebraic
topology-based deep learning model to systematically evaluate BA.2’s
and BA.3’s infectivity, vaccine breakthrough capability, and
antibody resistance. Our comparative analysis of all main variants,
namely, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3,
unveils that BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1
and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than
BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines. Therefore,
we project that Omicron BA.2 is on a path to becoming the next dominant
variant. We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously
compromise most existing monoclonal antibodies. All key predictions
have been nearly perfectly confirmed before the official publication
of this work.