Codes and Data Package: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

This package contains all the Stata data, do, and ado files needed to replicate the empirical findings in "Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis", forthcoming in Energy Economics.

Abstract: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where productivity is affected by deviations of temperature and precipitation from their long-term moving average historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. We also show that the marginal effects of temperature shocks vary across climates and income groups. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement goals, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. The estimated losses would increase to 13 percent globally if country-specific variability of climate conditions were to rise commensurate with annual temperature increases of 0.04°C.

本数据包包含用于复现《气候变化的长期宏观经济效应：跨国分析》（"Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis"）一文实证结果所需的全部Stata数据、Do文件与ado文件，该论文即将刊发于《能源经济学》（Energy Economics）。摘要：本文采用随机增长模型，探究气候变化对全球各国经济活动的长期影响，该模型设定生产率受气温与降水量偏离其长期移动平均历史基准值的影响。本文使用1960年至2014年间覆盖174个国家的面板数据集，研究发现：人均实际产出增长率会受到气温持续性偏离历史基准值（无论偏高或偏低）的负面影响，但未观测到降水量变化存在统计显著性效应。本文还证实，气温冲击的边际效应在不同气候区域与收入组别间存在显著异质性。反事实分析结果表明：若不采取气候减缓政策，全球平均气温以每年0.04°C的速率持续上升，到2100年全球人均实际GDP将下降7%以上。反之，若遵循《巴黎协定》目标，将气温升幅限制在每年0.01°C，可将损失大幅降至约1%。上述效应在各国间存在显著差异，具体取决于气温上升速率与气候条件的变异性。若各国特有的气候条件变异性随每年0.04°C的气温升幅同步上升，全球估计总损失将升至13%。