ADAPTIVE MODELS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT UNDER CONDITIONS OF ECOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN ARAL SEA REGION

This article examines the mechanisms of socio-economic adaptation of the population and territorial economic systems to ongoing ecological change in the Southern Aral Sea region (Republic of Karakalpakstan). Six core adaptive models are identified and systematized: institutional-governance, agro-ecological diversification, growth-pole (cluster), socio-demographic (migration-based), water-energy-food nexus, and green-economy models. For each model, the advantages, constraints, and applicability to the specific conditions of Karakalpakstan are assessed. The article concludes with practical recommendations for improving regional socio-economic policy.