Modelling the impact of vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions for infectious disease outbreaks

Outbreaks of infectious disease are responsible for a large global health burden, particularly in low and middle-income countries. This thesis uses mathematical modelling methods to estimate the health and economic impacts of public health interventions implemented during infectious disease outbreaks. It defines a structured methodology for conducting outbreak modelling, and develops a novel method for fitting disease models to large sets of disease outbreak data. It generates evidence for the past impact of outbreak response interventions, and estimates how the health impact of reactive vaccination programs could be increased if outbreak response timeliness was improved in low-resource settings.