The Rule of Law in Post-Conflict Settings: The Empirical Record

This paper analyzes whether and to what extent countries reconstitute the rule of law following civil conflict. Drawing on an original data set of 47 cases in which conflict ended between 1970 and 1999, we find that the cessation of conflict has at best a modest effect on the rule of law. On average, countries revert to the pre-conflict rule-of-law status quo ante. In simple models, rule of law prior to the onset of conflict is the best indicator of post-conflict performance. Analysis of individual cases using structural break analysis shows that the cessation of conflict is not typically associated with an inflection in the rule of law; improvements are modest, take a long time, and fall far short of plausible thresholds for robust rule of law.

本文分析了各国在内战结束后是否以及在多大程度上重建法治（rule of law）。本研究依托1970年至1999年间冲突终结的47个案例所构成的原创数据集展开研究，结果显示：冲突停火至多仅对法治产生微弱影响。平均而言，冲突结束后各国将回归至冲突爆发前的法治原状（status quo ante）。在简易计量模型中，冲突爆发前的法治水平是冲突后法治表现的最佳预测指标。通过结构断点分析（structural break analysis）对单个案例开展的分析显示，冲突停火通常不会带来法治的发展拐点；法治改善幅度微小、耗时漫长，且远未达到稳固法治的合理阈值。