Wolverine distribution model in the northern Cascade Range

Recolonization of the Cascade Range in southern British Columbia, Canada, and Washington, USA, by wolverines (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) is an ongoing process whose ultimate outcome is unknown. A reliable species distribution model for the wolverine in the Cascades (i.e., their first-order habitat selection) is urgently needed to help inform management and conservation strategies. Using Argos location data obtained on 10 resident adult wolverines (six females, four males) from 2008 to 2016, we generated a multi-covariate species distribution model (GeoTIFF raster format) for the wolverine in the Cascades. Our final model included three climatic covariates and their quadratic terms: Proximity to the Transitional Zone Near Alpine Tree Line, Number of Frost-free Days per Year, and Annual Precipitation as Snow. Model validations indicated that our model was robust and could identify areas of potential wolverine distribution in the Cascades reliably. Our model provides evidence that wolverine distribution in the Cascades is constrained by climatic conditions and that snowy and cold environments define the geographic areas that are overwhelmingly associated with resident wolverines. In addition, our model provides a reliable basis for monitoring the direct effects of climate change on wolverines in the Cascade Range and for predicting the extent to which climate change may impact their populations under various scenarios.Our spatially explicit model of the wolverine’s geographic distribution in the Cascade Range (i.e., their 1st-order habitat selection) based on satellite telemetry locations for 10 resident adult wolverines from 2008 to 2016 was created to help inform research, management, and conservation activities for wolverines in the Cascade Range in western Washington state, USA and in the southern portion of the province of British Columbia, Canada.Additional details about how our model was derived, model validation, and model interpretation are contained in Aubry et al. (2023).

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省南部和美国华盛顿州卡斯克德山脉的狼獾（Gulo gulo (L., 1758)）的重新定居是一个持续进行的过程，其最终结果尚不明确。为了帮助制定管理和保护策略，迫切需要建立一个可靠的狼獾在卡斯克德山脉（即其一级栖息地选择）的物种分布模型。利用2008年至2016年从10只居住成年狼獾（其中六只为雌性，四只为雄性）获取的Argos位置数据，我们生成了一个多变量物种分布模型（GeoTIFF栅格格式），用于预测卡斯克德山脉中的狼獾分布。我们的最终模型包括三个气候协变量及其二次项：接近高山树线过渡区的距离、每年无霜天数和年降雪量。模型验证表明，我们的模型稳健可靠，能够可靠地识别卡斯克德山脉中狼獾的潜在分布区域。我们的模型提供了证据，表明卡斯克德山脉的狼獾分布受气候条件限制，而雪地和寒冷环境定义了与定居狼獾极其相关的地理区域。此外，我们的模型为监测气候变化对卡斯克德山脉狼獾的直接影响，以及预测在多种情景下气候变化可能对它们种群的影响范围提供了可靠的基础。基于2008年至2016年10只居住成年狼獾的卫星遥感定位数据，我们构建的狼獾在卡斯克德山脉的地理分布模型（即其一级栖息地选择）旨在为美国华盛顿州西部和加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省南部的狼獾研究、管理和保护活动提供信息。关于我们模型的推导、验证和解释的详细信息，请参阅Aubry等人（2023年）。