Religion, Populism and Backsliding: The Case of Polish Gray Voters

Next to Hungary, Poland is the most prominent case of democratic backsliding in Europe. Against this backdrop, this study examines how religion shapes liberal-democratic versus authoritarian-populist political preferences among older ("gray") voters in Poland. We focus on gray voters because, due to demographic change, they represent an increasingly influential segment of European electorates (including Poland). Also, gray voters are particularly targeted by authoritarian-populist parties, most notably Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party whose leaders are the main agents of democratic backsliding. Drawing on a three-wave panel survey collected across the full 2023–2025 electoral cycle (N = 323), we analyze the party sympathies and vote choices of gray voters (aged 60 and above) in the context of Poland's democratic backsliding. As drivers of gray voters' authoritarian-populist inclinations, we distinguish between an emphasis on Catholic primacy, personal religiosity and sexual conservatism. Using general linear and binomial logistic regression models, we show that Catholic primacy and sexual conservatism are the strongest and most consistent predictors of both authoritarian-populist party sympathies and vote choices. By contrast, personal religiosity is either unrelated to authoritarian-populist inclinations or even associated with liberal-democratic preferences. These findings demonstrate that religion’s political effects depend less on religiosity per se than on its public, identity-based, and moralizing politicization. Our study also demonstrates that--like in the US and other countries--conservative opposition against sexual liberalism in questions about abortion, homosexuality and divorce is a key element motivating authoritarian-populist party sympathies and vote choices.在欧洲各国中，波兰是仅次于匈牙利的最典型民主倒退（democratic backsliding）案例。在此背景下，本研究探讨了宗教如何塑造波兰年长选民（gray voters）的自由民主（liberal-democratic）与威权民粹主义（authoritarian-populist）政治偏好。我们之所以聚焦于该群体，是因为人口结构变迁使得年长选民在包括波兰在内的欧洲选民群体中影响力与日俱增；同时，威权民粹主义政党将该群体作为核心目标群体，其中最具代表性的便是波兰的法律与公正党（Law and Justice, PiS），该党领导人正是推动民主倒退的核心力量。本研究依托覆盖完整2023-2025选举周期的三轮面板调查（样本量N=323），分析了波兰民主倒退背景下60岁及以上年长选民的政党支持倾向与投票选择。针对年长选民威权民粹主义倾向的驱动因素，我们将其划分为三类：天主教至上主义（Catholic primacy）、个人宗教虔诚度（personal religiosity）与性保守主义（sexual conservatism）。本研究采用广义线性模型与二项逻辑回归模型进行分析后发现，天主教至上主义与性保守主义是威权民粹主义政党支持倾向及投票选择最显著且最稳定的预测因子。相较而言，个人宗教虔诚度要么与威权民粹主义倾向无关，甚至可能与自由民主政治偏好呈正相关。上述研究结果表明，宗教的政治影响更多取决于其公共性、身份属性与道德化政治化，而非宗教虔诚本身。本研究同时证实，与美国及其他国家的情况类似，在堕胎、同性婚姻与离婚议题上反对性自由主义的保守立场，是推动选民形成威权民粹主义政党支持倾向与投票选择的核心因素。