Unpacking Migration Costs: Heterogeneous Effects in EU Labor Markets

Data and replication files for "Unpacking Migration Costs: Heterogeneous Effects in EU Labor Markets" in Economic Modelling.
I employ a tractable two-country search model of unemployment with endogenous migration decisions for workers and apply the model to the context of the European Union. I find that migration costs for workers are important factors in determining migration, unemployment
and wages. Increasing migration costs increase unemployment and decrease migration, wages and welfare. This headline result is disaggregated into heterogeneous effects across workers with different countries of origin and migration histories. Workers who
move more times, or for longer spells, are more affected by costs than workers who move less or not at all, though non-migrating workers experience changes to their labor market outcomes due to the externalities imposed by migrant workers. Using EU data, I find that costly migration lowers welfare by 11-60% relative to free mobility.

刊发于《经济建模》（Economic Modelling）期刊的《拆解移民成本：欧盟劳动力市场中的异质性影响》（Unpacking Migration Costs: Heterogeneous Effects in EU Labor Markets）一文的配套数据与复现文件。本文采用一个易于处理的两国失业搜寻模型，纳入工人的内生移民决策，并将该模型应用于欧盟场景。研究发现，工人的移民成本是决定移民规模、失业水平与工资水平的关键因素。移民成本的提升会推高失业水平，同时降低移民规模、工资水平与社会福利。这一核心结论还被拆解为针对不同原籍国与不同移民经历工人的异质性影响。相较于迁移次数更少或完全不迁移的工人，迁移次数更多、或迁移持续时间更长的工人受移民成本的影响更为显著；尽管非迁移工人也会因移民工人带来的外部性而使其劳动力市场结果发生变化。基于欧盟数据的实证结果显示，相较于完全自由流动的场景，存在移民成本的情况会使社会福利降低11%至60%。