Modelled future evolution of Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Norway
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This dataset contains the modelled evolution of key glacier variables for Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, as detailed in Åkesson et al. (2025). The files included are in netcdf (.nc) format, which can be open in many different software such at Python, Matlab, Panoply, NC View, QGIS, ArcGIS, etc. The output is available for every year, on a 100 m grid, with dimensions (x,y) = (670,610). Note that the true model resolution varied spatially from 100 to 300 m (see Åkesson et al. 2025 for details). The model output available here is grouped as follows: Simulations 2021-2100 Jost20240813a_modelled_100m_RCP45_2021-2100.nc Jost20240813e_modelled_100m_RCP85_2021-2100.nc This modelled ice-cap evolution was produced using the climate model combination ECEARTH/CCLM, using the representative concentration pathways called RCP4.5 (medium emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions). The published paper Åkesson et al. (2025) contains additional ice-cap simulations as well, forced by other climate models. Such output can be obtained upon request from the authors. Simulations 2101-2300 Jost20240508b_modelled_100m_RCP45Commit_2101-2300.nc Jost20240508c_modelled_100m_RCP85Commit_2101-2300.nc These simulations quantifies the long-term response of the ice cap to 21st-century climate forcing, what we also call the committed mass loss. The ice-cap model was forced by the modelled surface mass balance averaged over the years 2081-2100, for the two respective RCP scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The climate forcing is thus constant in time. Variables in each netcdf-file bedrock_elevation - Bedrock elevation (m a.s.l.) for ice-covered and ice-free areas based on the data in Gillespie et al. (2024) and hoydedata.no ice_mask - Mask showing modelled ice-covered areas (ice_mask = 1) and ice-free areas (ice_mask = 0). A modelled ice thickness of 10 m is used as threshold for this mask. surface_modelled - Modelled ice-surface elevation (m a.s.l) thickness_modelled - Modelled ice thickness (m) velsurf_modelled - Modelled ice-surface velocity (m/year) smb_modelled - Modelled surface mass balance (m water equivalent) - note that this is the surface mass balance associated with an evolving ice-surface geometry (includes the surface mass balance - elevation feedback) time - Model year X - The x coordinate (m), using the coordinate system UTM32N Y - The y coordinate (m), using the coordinate system UTM32N See also this GitHub repository if you're interested in running your own simulations. References:Please cite the following references if you use this dataset for any purposes. Åkesson, H., Sjursen, K. H., Vikhamar Schuler, T., Dunse, T., Andreassen, L. M., Kusk Gillespie, M., Robson, B. A., Schellenberger, T., and Clement Yde, J.: Recent history and future demise of Jostedalsbreen, the largest ice cap in mainland Europe, The Cryosphere, 19, 5871–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025, 2025. Åkesson, H., & Sjursen, K. H. (2025). Modelled future evolution of Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Norway [Data set]. In The Cryosphere. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17472491
本数据集包含挪威约斯特谷冰原（Jostedalsbreen）关键冰川变量的模拟演化过程，相关细节详见Åkesson等人（2025）的研究成果。 本数据集包含的文件均为netCDF（.nc）格式，可通过Python、Matlab、Panoply、NC View、QGIS、ArcGIS等多款软件读取。 该数据集的输出以100米分辨率的网格为基础，按年份全覆盖，空间维度为(x,y)=(670,610)。需注意，模型的实际空间分辨率在100米至300米之间存在空间差异，详细信息可参见Åkesson等人（2025）的研究。 本数据集提供的模型输出按如下两组划分： 2021-2100年模拟情景 Jost20240813a_modelled_100m_RCP45_2021-2100.nc Jost20240813e_modelled_100m_RCP85_2021-2100.nc 本次冰原演化模拟采用ECEARTH/CCLM气候模型组合，驱动情景为典型浓度路径（RCP）4.5（中等排放）与RCP8.5（高排放）。Åkesson等人（2025）的已发表论文还包含了由其他气候模型驱动的冰原模拟情景，此类数据集可通过向作者申请获取。 2101-2300年模拟情景 Jost20240508b_modelled_100m_RCP45Commit_2101-2300.nc Jost20240508c_modelled_100m_RCP85Commit_2101-2300.nc 该组模拟用于量化冰原对21世纪气候强迫的长期响应，即我们所称的“承诺性质量损失”。针对两种RCP情景（RCP4.5与RCP8.5），冰原模型的驱动场为2081-2100年平均的模拟地表质量平衡，因此气候强迫不随时间变化。 各netCDF文件包含的变量如下： bedrock_elevation：冰覆盖区与无冰区的基岩海拔（单位：米海拔基准面，m a.s.l.），数据源自Gillespie等人（2024）与hoydedata.no。 ice_mask：用于标识模拟冰覆盖区（ice_mask=1）与无冰区（ice_mask=0）的掩码，该掩码以10米的模拟冰厚作为判定阈值。 surface_modelled：模拟得到的冰面海拔（单位：米海拔基准面，m a.s.l.）。 thickness_modelled：模拟得到的冰体厚度（单位：米）。 velsurf_modelled：模拟得到的冰面运动速度（单位：米/年）。 smb_modelled：模拟得到的地表质量平衡（单位：米水当量），需注意该变量对应随冰面几何形态演化的地表质量平衡，包含地表质量平衡-海拔反馈效应。 time：模型模拟的年份。 X：采用UTM32N坐标系的x方向坐标（单位：米）。 Y：采用UTM32N坐标系的y方向坐标（单位：米）。 若您希望开展自主模拟实验，可参考该GitHub仓库。 参考文献：若您将本数据集用于任何研究或工作，请引用如下文献： 1. Åkesson, H., Sjursen, K. H., Vikhamar Schuler, T., Dunse, T., Andreassen, L. M., Kusk Gillespie, M., Robson, B. A., Schellenberger, T., 及Clement Yde, J.：《欧洲大陆最大冰原——约斯特谷冰原的近期演化与未来消亡》，《冰冻圈》，19卷，5871–5902页，https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025，2025年。 2. Åkesson, H. 与Sjursen, K. H.（2025）. 《挪威约斯特谷冰原未来演化模拟》[数据集]. 载于《冰冻圈》. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17472491
