What will the corporate income tax system in Ukraine be by 2035? Delphi Method. Quantitative and qualitative data

This data are the result of scientific research relating to the evaluation of alternative scenarios of corporate income taxation in Ukraine by 2035, in the terms of their preferability and probability.

For this research, the Delphi method was chosen.

The results show 6 main points.
1. The experts are fully convinced that the corporate income tax will not be abolished by 2035. However, experts are not as confident whether the corporate income tax will remain unchanged.

2. All scenarios with strong and moderate consensus are undesirable and low probable.

3. After 4 evaluation rounds the most desirable scenario «Expanding the base through taxation of digital companies that have no physical presence in the country» remained moderately inconsistent. However, this is currently the most discussed scenario in the world, which is a part of OECD initiatives Pillar 1 and Pillar 2.

4. The most undesirable scenario with the strongest consensus was «Increasing the basic tax rate», although it is considered by Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz as one of the preferred scenarios for a particular group of countries.

5. The most discussed scenario in Ukraine since 2015 «Replacement of corporate income tax with tax on withdrawn capital» showed strong experts inconsistent on the desirability, as well as a moderate consensus on the low probability.

And finally, 6. The results of the Delphi method research did not close the discussion about corporate income taxation future in Ukraine, but only highlighted new issues that need further investigations. Thus, conducting such research on a regular basis should be a good foundation for making informed decisions about the future of the taxation system in Ukraine.

The generalizability of these results is subject to certain limitations:
1. The experts from Ukraine and The Commonwealth of Independent States could affect the breadth of views on the research problem.
2. The results of the study depend on the socio-economic and institutional conditions in Ukraine and cannot be fully extrapolated to the tax systems of the other countries.

Data are available in Ukrainian and Russian only.