Assessing the risks of northeastern African archaeological heritage and their relationship to human–environmental processes: a Bayesian network approach

Preserving the archaeological heritage of North Africa is challenging due to unique anthropic and environmental processes. This study introduces a Bayesian network approach to model and evaluates the impact of regional anthropogenic actions and environmental conditions on the gradual disappearance of endangered archaeological heritage in the Marmarica region (northeastern Libya/northwestern Egypt). The predictive model quantifies the complex relationship among human–environment interactions involved in such processes, specifically addressing the nonlinear vulnerability of archaeological heritage to the convergence of different threats, such as climate change, urban development, or natural erosion. This model also enables us to explore patterns of association between anthropic remains (e.g. settlements, productive places, mobility structures, etc.) and environmental factors (e.g. topography, climate, hydrology, etc.), considering different co-occurring agents in these dynamics. Furthermore, the model can be applied to study such processes in other regions, enabling wider effective risk management and heritage preservation efforts.