Evaluation of Green Investment in Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants Using Analytical Hierarchy Process in Archipelago

This study evaluates green investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants in Indonesia’s archipelago using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Despite the national renewable energy (RE) target of 23% by 2025, the development of wind and solar projects remains constrained by high investment risks, inadequate infrastructure, and regulatory uncertainties. As an archipelagic country with abundant solar resources, Indonesia faces the dual challenge of mobilizing sustainable financing while reducing reliance on fossil-fuel-based diesel plants. The research aims to identify and prioritize determinants influencing green investment decision-making for solar PV in archipelago. Data were gathered through structured questionnaires and interviews with 75 respondents, of which 35 responses met the AHP consistency ratio requirement. The four-level hierarchical model reveals that policy factors (0.4825) exert the strongest influence, followed by economic (0.3120) and technical (0.2055) factors. At the sub-criteria level, profitability (0.7724), renewables obligation (0.6055), and technological maturity (0.6020) rank highest, highlighting the role of financial viability, regulatory enforcement, and proven technology in shaping investment attractiveness. The findings show policymakers favor short-term fiscal support, whereas researchers and practitioners stress long-term regulatory certainty and financing accessibility. The study’s novelty lies in integrating multi-stakeholder perspectives into a structured model, offering quantitative insights for green finance strategies.

本研究采用层次分析法（Analytical Hierarchy Process，AHP），对印度尼西亚群岛地区的太阳能光伏（Solar Photovoltaic，PV）电站绿色投资展开评估。尽管印尼国家可再生能源（Renewable Energy，RE）目标设定为2025年占比23%，但风电与光伏项目的发展仍受限于高额投资风险、基础设施不完善以及监管不确定性。作为拥有丰富太阳能资源的群岛国家，印尼同时面临两大核心挑战：一是筹措可持续融资资源，二是降低对化石燃料柴油电站的依赖。本研究旨在识别并排序影响群岛地区太阳能光伏绿色投资决策的各类决定因素。研究通过结构化问卷与访谈收集数据，共回收75份有效问卷，其中35份符合层次分析法的一致性比率要求。本次构建的四级层级模型结果显示，政策因素（权重0.4825）的影响权重最高，其次为经济因素（0.3120）与技术因素（0.2055）。在子准则层面，盈利能力（0.7724）、可再生能源义务（0.6055）与技术成熟度（0.6020）位列前三，凸显了财务可行性、监管执行与成熟技术对提升投资吸引力的关键作用。研究结果表明，政策制定者更倾向于短期财政扶持，而研究者与业界从业者则更强调长期监管稳定性与融资可得性。本研究的创新之处在于将多利益相关方视角融入结构化分析模型，为绿色金融战略制定提供了量化参考依据。