National Accounts- Quarterlies March 2024 Data Collection

Gross domestic product: March 2024 quarter – changes and data updates Introduction Gross domestic product (GDP) sources and methods are thoroughly documented (see: Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (second edition), with a further update in Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (fifth edition). Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments provides a summary of the sources and methods and also includes information about where we have used alternative indicators to better capture the impacts of COVID-19 on economic activity. The quarterly indicators used when compiling our estimate of GDP are the best that we have available at that time. We usually face trade-offs between timeliness and the quality of available data sources. As higher quality data becomes available this is incorporated into our estimate of GDP as data updates. As a result, the methods we use vary depending on the data available and are underpinned by certain assumptions. In normal periods of activity, these assumptions provide us with reasonable estimates of activity. In periods of abrupt disruption (such as the COVID-19 alert level 4 lockdowns) some of these relationships have weakened or no longer hold. Changes made due to COVID-19 We’ve continued to review and refine approaches applied in each of the quarters from March 2020 to March 2024. Where necessary, we continue to use alternative indicators to ensure the effects of the COVID pandemic and related restrictions on activity are appropriately measured. Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments is an updated guide to the concepts and methods we are using to compile gross domestic product (GDP) and includes information on where alternative indicators remain in use. Seasonal adjustment additive outlier treatment Sharp changes in activity pose challenges for our usual seasonal adjustment processes. Over the last few years, we have applied additive outlier treatment to our headline GDP estimates, as well as to those industries and components with major impacts from border closures or domestic COVID-19 restrictions. This subdues the impact of unusual data points on the seasonal adjustment process. The irregular impacts of COVID-19 largely finished in the June 2022 quarter and for most affected series we have stopped applying additive outlier treatment from the September 2022 quarter onwards. As activity returns to more stable patterns there will be a period of uncertainty around seasonal adjustment factors, especially for series heavily affected by COVID-19 restrictions. For a small number of component series, we continue to apply additive outliers in all quarters during and post Covid. These series include: imports of travel services, and exports of services, travel services and transport services (in current and constant prices). travel credits and travel debits (hHousehold consumption expenditure (HCE)). For these series, there are level shifts apparent that may require more complex modelling in the seasonal adjustment process or more data points available to have confidence in changing additive outlier settings for recent quarters. For the impacted imports and exports series, we continue to retain identical additive outlier treatment between equivalent gross domestic product and balance of payments series (see Seasonal adjustment and automatic outliers in time series after COVID-19). We plan to review seasonal adjustment settings during and around the COVID-19 period soon, as it is possible that some settings chosen during the pandemic are no longer optimal as we move towards a different economic environment. This review is likely to result in changes to treatment, and hence data updates, for some series – especially those most affected by the pandemic. When finalised, any changes will be clearly signalled in advance of publication. Corrections to quarterly gross domestic product Correction to financial and insurance services A correction has been made to the process for compiling estimates for financial and insurance services, which impacts the December 2023 quarter. This was due to an incorrect process which has been corrected. Corrections to household consumption expenditure There was a processing error in the recreation component of HCE, which has been corrected. This has caused data updates back to June 2020. There was also an error affecting the insurance services component of HCE which has been corrected, causing minor changes in the early part of the time series prior to March 2002. Corrections to business travel debits adjustments Minor travel debits adjustments are added into multiple production-side industries to account for lower international travel due to COVID-19. There have been updates to input data and some minor corrections to parameters used in this process. This has caused minor data updates to GDP in several industries, notably Construction in the year ended March 2021, and Business services in the year ended March 2022. Changes due to updated indicator data Updates to central government final consumption expenditure (CGFCE) Updates have been made to two series within CGFCE to properly account for changes in how data is reported. This has caused data updates to social assistance benefits in kind (SABIKs) for the September and December 2023 quarters, and to intermediate consumption for the December 2023 quarter. A small processing error has also contributed to intermediate consumption data updates for the December 2023 quarter, however this was relatively minor in size. Incorporating annual agricultural production statistics We incorporated data from Agricultural production statistics: Year to June 2023 (provisional). The data replaced earlier published data and modelled stock levels. Incorporating the data led to updates to agricultural activity in GDP, and to agricultural inventories in the expenditure measure of GDP. These changes caused updates from the March 2022 quarter onwards. Incorporating updated Value of building work put in place data The Value of building work put in place (also known as Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS)) has updated data from the June 2023 quarter onwards. This has caused changes to both construction and gross fixed capital formation over the same time period. Value of building work put in place: March 2024 quarter has more information. Incorporating updated Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) The Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) has updated data from December 2022 quarter onwards. This has caused changes to electricity, gas, water, and waste services over the same period. Linked employer-employee data: March 2023 quarter – NZ.Stat tables has more information. Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) changes Low-level QES data is used as quarterly indicators for several production-side sub-industries and expenditure components. The quarterly movements for some QES series have shown increased volatility due to sample rotation, and further analysis has led to the use of movements that exclude the impact of sample change. The industries that required adjustment in the March 2024 quarter are: Information, media, and telecommunications Arts, recreation and other services Household consumption expenditure Labour Market Statistics: March 2024 quarter has more information. Other changes due to updated respondent information and other source data We received updated respondent information and other source data, causing updates to: Agriculture, forestry and fishing – new and updated Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) Electricity, gas, water and waste services – new and updated Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) Information, media, and telecommunications – updated administrative data from Inland Revenue Transport, postal and warehousing – updated respondent data and updated MBIE domestic oil deliveries data Finance and insurance – updated Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) data Rental, hiring, and real estate services – updated QV data, updated FISIM data Household consumption expenditure – updated FISIM and flow through from other components Private non-profits serving households – updated deflator data Central government final consumption expenditure – updated respondent data from EQC, Te Whatu Ora, and NZTA Local government final consumption expenditure – updated QLAS data Gross fixed capital formation – Updated QBAS data and other updated respondent data Imports and exports – updated International trade data Unallocated taxes – flow-through from updates to insurance services, gross fixed capital formation, household consumption expenditure, and central government final consumption expenditure Inventories – updated BFD data. Updates to inventories Updates were also made during the process of reconciling change in inventories with other movements in production and expenditure series. This process is designed to minimise inconsistencies in timing and valuation. Updates in GDP income measure The updates to Business Financial Data (BFD), Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS), final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, inventories, imports and exports of goods and services will flow through to GDPI series. Implementing updated quarterly methodologies Data updates due to chain linking We use data for March years to calculate chain-volume measures. Previously published quarterly chain-volume measures have revised as we now have year ended March 2024 results. This affects multiple chain-linked components of both production and expenditure measures of GDP and are particularly noticeable within imports and exports. Data updates table The following table shows previously published and updated quarterly movements for the June 2018 to December 2023 quarters’ GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). There were also some changes to earlier quarters, but these were less material. All movements below are in constant prices. Previously published and updated quarterly movements Gross domestic product Gross domestic expenditure Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Updated 20 June 2024 Previously published Updated 20 June 2024 June 2018 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 September 2018 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 December 2018 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 March 2019 0.7 0.7 0.9 1 June 2019 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 September 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 December 2019 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 March 2020 -1.2 -1.2 -1 -0.9 June 2020 -10.2 -10.1 -9.6 -9.8 September 2020 14.1 14.1 13.6 13.7 December 2020 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 March 2021 1.8 1.8 1.9 2 June 2021 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 September 2021 -3.9 -3.9 -4.4 -4.3 December 2021 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 March 2022 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 June 2022 1 1 1.2 1.2 September 2022 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 December 2022 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 March 2023 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 June 2023 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 September 2023 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 December 2023 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ