Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating th..., Field data on winter moths were collected yearly since 1994 in four forests around Arnhem, the Netherlands, using simple funnel traps to catch adult moths in winter (see [Van Asch et al. 2013, Nat Clim Change] for details). Eggs collected from these wild adults were kept in a field shed at the Netherlands Institute of Ecology. 
Deposited field data for the period 1994–2021 include per year: number of adult moths collected, with for each moth (individual-based data with individual identifier): number of eggs laid, spring seasonal timing of their eggs kept in our field shed, and spring seasonal timing of budburst of oak trees in the field on which adults were caught.
Experimental data were collected in a caterpillar feeding experiment in the Spring of 2021, using eggs from the long-term field monitoring (described above). The experiment consisted of a split-brood design, where the timing of hatching of eggs laid by each female was manipulated to induce staggered hatching. Caterpillars wer...,

气候变化可通过引发消费者与资源间的物候错配（phenological mismatch），对依赖临时性资源的物种造成严重冲击。以冬季蛾（winter moth）为例，暖冬会使其卵在食物源——嫩栎叶——萌发前就完成孵化，这种物候错配改变了针对卵发育速率温度敏感性的选择压。然而目前我们对个体水平上物候错配的精细适合度后果，以及该错配如何影响冬季蛾种群动态的认知仍较为匮乏。为明确相较于栎树芽展期的卵孵化错配所带来的适合度后果，我们通过取食实验量化了幼虫的存活率与化蛹体重。研究发现，错配显著提高了初孵幼虫的死亡率，同时也会影响幼虫的生长与发育时长。随后我们通过估算……，以此探究这些个体适合度后果是否会带来种群水平的影响。

自1994年起，我们在荷兰阿纳姆周边的4片森林中每年收集冬季蛾的野外数据，于冬季使用简易漏斗诱捕器（funnel traps）捕捉成虫（细节参见[Van Asch等，2013，《自然·气候变化》（Nature Climate Change）]）。从这些野生成虫体内采集的卵被存放于荷兰生态学研究所的野外棚舍中。

1994至2021年的存档野外数据包含每年的成虫捕获量，以及每头成虫（带有个体标识的个体水平数据）的产卵量、存放于野外棚舍的卵的春季物候期，还有成虫捕获样地中栎树的春季芽展物候期。

2021年春季我们开展了幼虫取食实验，采集自上述长期野外监测种群的卵被用于该实验。实验采用分半同胞实验设计（split-brood design），通过调控每头雌虫所产卵的孵化时间，实现孵化期的交错排布。幼虫……