Impact of Clean Energy on CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth within the Phases of Renewables Diffusion in Selected European Countries

This study explores the impact of clean energy and non-renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions and economic growth within two phases (formative and expansion) of renewable energy diffusion for three selected countries (France, Spain, and Sweden). The vector autoregression (VAR) model is estimated on the basis of annual data disaggregated into quarterly data. The Granger causality results reveal distinctive differences in the causality patterns across countries and two phases of renewables diffusion. Clean energy consumption contributes to a decline of emissions more clearly in the expansion phase in France and Spain. However, this effect seems to be counteracted by the increases in emissions due to economic growth and non-renewable energy consumption. Therefore, clean energy consumption has not yet led to a decoupling of economic growth from emissions in France and Spain; in contrast, the findings for Sweden evidence such a decoupling due to the neutrality between economic growth and emissions. Generally, the findings show that despite the enormous growth of renewables and active mitigation policies, CO₂ emissions have not substantially decreased in selected countries or globally. Focused and coordinated policy action, not only at the EU level but also globally, is urgently needed to overhaul existing fossil-fuel economies into low-carbon economies and ultimately meet the relevant climate targets.本研究针对法国、西班牙、瑞典三个样本国家，探究了清洁能源与非可再生能源消费在可再生能源扩散的两个阶段（形成期与扩张期）内对二氧化碳（CO₂）排放与经济增长的影响。本研究基于经季度化拆解的年度数据，估计了向量自回归（Vector Autoregression, VAR）模型。格兰杰因果检验（Granger Causality）结果显示，不同国家间以及可再生能源扩散的两个阶段内，因果关系模式均存在显著差异。在法国与西班牙的扩张阶段，清洁能源消费对减排的促进作用更为显著；然而，该效应似乎被经济增长与非可再生能源消费带来的排放增量所抵消。因此，法国与西班牙的清洁能源消费尚未实现经济增长与碳排放的脱钩；与之形成鲜明对比的是，瑞典的研究结果印证了此类脱钩现象——其经济增长与碳排放呈现中性关联。总体而言，研究结果表明，尽管可再生能源规模实现了大幅增长且各国推行了积极的气候减缓政策，但样本国家乃至全球范围内的二氧化碳排放仍未出现实质性下降。当前亟需欧盟乃至全球层面的针对性协同政策行动，以推动现有化石燃料经济体向低碳经济体转型，最终达成相关气候目标。