Interplay of Macropartisanship and Macroideology: A Time-Series Analysis

Considerable research focuses on explaining trends in party identification in the American public. Somewhat less attention has been devoted to trends in ideological identification, although such research has been on the increase. However, the potential relationship between macropartisanship and macroideology remains largely unexamined. The investigators use alternative methodologies to test whether shifts in macropartisanship have occurred independently of, along with, before, or after shifts in macroideology. Also examined are the time-series properties of the two series, which provide insight into their persistence and memory. The framework provides a flexible approach to studying short- and long-run behavior, and the evidence is consistently at variance with the idea that there is a relationship between macroideolgy and macropartisanship. Thus, shifts in party identification and ideology are not driven in response to a set of common factors, nor can shifts in one partisan direction or the other be interpreted as ideological mandates at the aggregate level.