Energy productivity as a New Growth Model for GCC Countries

About the Project Increasing energy productivity holds some of the greatest possibilities for enhancing the welfare countries get out of their energy systems. It also recasts energy efficiency in terms of boosting competitiveness and wealth, more powerfully conveying its profound benefits to society. KAPSARC and UNESCWA have initiated this project to explore the energy productivity potential of the Arab region, starting with the six GCC countries. Aimed at policymakers, the project aims to highlight the social gains from energy productivity investments, where countries are currently at, and articulate options for achieving improved performance in this area.Key PointsFollowing the collapse in oil prices, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have intensified efforts to find a new growth model which increases the welfare of their citizens, while reducing exposure to volatile energy markets. This paper argues that placing energy productivity at the heart of such a new growth paradigm offers a compelling path forward to strengthen economic diversification, energy efficiency and innovation efforts. Key findings of this paper include: Setting national energy productivity targets would provide a powerful signal on the future direction of government policies and increase transparency to monitor and evaluate progress. Clear, shared goals can also act as a helpful coordinating instrument between different stakeholders. Evidence suggests that greater economic value and per capita income is possible along a high-energy productivity growth pathway. Higher energy productivity can help address the Gulf’s “energy paradox” of the current growth model driving higher energy consumption as a proportion of energy production, while relying on energy export revenues for public investment and spending to support growth. Many advanced economies show strong evidence of having successfully decoupled economic growth from energy consumption along a high-energy productivity pathway. GCC countries exhibit this trait only weakly, if at all. Setting energy productivity goals could constitute a regionally appropriate form of ‘‘green growth’’ and also strengthen GCC engagement with various international processes such as the UNFCCC and G-20 initiatives on energy and the environment.

关于本项目，提升能源生产率对于增强国家从其能源系统中获得的福利具有巨大的潜力。它还将能源效率重新定义为提升竞争力和财富，更有效地传达其对社会的深远益处。KAPSARC与联合国经济和社会事务部（UNESCWA）共同启动了本项目，旨在探索阿拉伯地区的能源生产率潜力，首先以六个海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家为起点。针对政策制定者，本项目的目标是突出能源生产率投资的社会收益，明确各国当前所处阶段，并阐述在此领域实现性能改进的选项。主要观点：随着石油价格的下跌，海湾合作委员会国家加大了寻找新增长模式以提升公民福利、减少对波动性能源市场的依赖的努力。本文认为，将能源生产率置于这种新增长范式核心位置，为加强经济多元化、能源效率和创新能力提供了强有力的前进路径。本文的主要发现包括：设定国家能源生产率目标将向未来政府政策方向发出强有力的信号，并增加透明度以监控和评估进展。明确、共享的目标还可以作为不同利益相关者之间有益的协调工具。证据表明，在高能源生产率增长路径上，可以实现更高的经济价值和人均收入。更高的能源生产率有助于解决海湾地区当前增长模型中的“能源悖论”，即随着能源生产比重的提高，推动能源消费增加，同时依赖能源出口收入进行公共投资和支出以支持增长。许多发达经济体显示了在高能源生产率路径上成功将经济增长与能源消费脱钩的强烈证据。GCC国家仅表现出这种特性的弱迹象，或者几乎没有。设定能源生产率目标可能构成地区适宜的“绿色增长”形式，并加强GCC与联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）和G-20关于能源和环境的倡议等各项国际进程的互动。