Replication Data for: Cyclones and Violence Against Civilians: Evidence from the Cabo Delgado Insurgency

Do natural shocks increase insurgent rates of civilian victimization? We consider one recent case of a natural shock that directly affected an ongoing rebellion, Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado insurgency, where over the 2018-2020 period, an insurgency with few societal ties and an extremist, pro-Islamic State ideology engaged in multiple attacks on civilians. Our assessment employs both time series analysis and qualitative evaluations. Our focus is on the effects of cyclones—a climatic event whose rates are predicted to intensify over the coming decades. In contrast to several past studies on natural shocks in conflict zones and strategic violence against civilians, our findings suggest that in contexts of insurgencies that do not have a strong local support base and where the group purports an extremist transnational ideology, natural shocks may lead to more violence against civilians.

自然冲击是否会推高叛乱组织针对平民实施暴力侵害的频次？我们选取了近期一起直接波及持续叛乱活动的自然冲击案例——莫桑比克德尔加杜角省叛乱事件：2018至2020年间，该叛乱组织几乎无本土社会根基，秉持极端主义、效忠伊斯兰国（Islamic State）的意识形态，曾多次发动针对平民的袭击。本研究结合时间序列分析与质性评估两种方法展开分析，聚焦气旋（cyclones）这一气候事件的影响——现有预测显示，未来数十年内气旋发生频率将显著攀升。与此前针对冲突区域自然冲击及针对平民的战略性暴力的多项研究结论迥异，我们的研究发现：在叛乱组织缺乏稳固本土支持基础、且秉持极端跨国意识形态的情境中，自然冲击可能会加剧其针对平民的暴力行为。