Comparison and analysis of the burden of oncological disease due to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021

Objective  To explore the burden of disease attributable to high BMI (Body Mass Index) risk for neoplasms in the Chinese population, and to analyse the trend of mortality in China with the three factors of age, period, and cohort, in comparison with the US, Japan, and global data. Methods  Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the age, period and cohort effects of mortality attributable to high BMI for neoplasms in China were estimated by the age-period-cohort model with the application of Stata SE 16.0 analysis for Chinese residents aged 20 years or older from 1990 to 2021. Results  From 1990 to 2021, the burden of disease due to high BMI in neoplasm patients in the Chinese population showed an increasing trend, with the burden of death increasing from 11556.2 (95% UI=18285.5-6039.8) in 1990 to 58745.2 (95% UI=99888.9-24601.1) in 2021,mortality rate from 0.982 (95% UI=1.554-0.513) in 1990 to 4.129 (95% UI=7.021-1.729) in 2021.Comparing the changes in data from the United States, Japan, and the world, it was found that the burden of neoplasm deaths attributable to high BMI was increasing both nationally and globally, but the increase in the burden of deaths in China from 1990 to 2021 reached 420.47%, which was much higher than that of the world (175.54%), the United States (151.97%), and Japan (324.51%); In the APC model, the change trends of the age effect and the period effect attributable to high BMI mortality in the Chinese neoplasm population were consistent with a gradual increase in 1990-2021, while the results of the cohort effect showed a decreasing trend. Conclusions  The burden of neoplasm disease attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021 is increasing and has become a public health problem. The government and all sectors of society should strengthen awareness and publicity about obesity, and guide people to adopt healthy lifestyles and eating habits through health education activities. Interventions should be targeted at people of different genders and ages.