PROBABILITY MODEL OF THE SUBMERGED WELDING PROCESS AND CALCULATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF DEFECTS

This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of submerged arc welding (SAW) processes and evaluates the likelihood of defects formation in welds. The study, conducted on an automated SAW machine, investigated how parameter stability, wire feed rate, and flux layer condition influence defect frequency. The probabilistic approach enables assessing process reliability, predicting defect risk, and optimizing technological regimes.本文针对埋弧焊（submerged arc welding, SAW）工艺开展概率化分析，并评估焊缝中缺陷形成的可能性。本研究依托自动化埋弧焊设备展开，探究了工艺参数稳定性、送丝速度以及焊剂层状态对缺陷发生率的影响规律。该概率分析方法可用于评估工艺可靠性、预测缺陷风险，并优化工艺规范。