Can Value-Added Tax Refund Policy inhibit Corporate Financial Fraud？Evidence from China.

Utilizing the "Finance and Taxation [2018] No.70" document issued by the Chinese government in 2018 as an instrumental quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology to investigate the influence of the value-added tax refund policy (VATRP) on corporate financial fraud. Empirical results robustly indicate that VATRP markedly curtails corporate financial fraud, a finding that endures a series of rigorous robustness checks, including a placebo test, propensity score matching, parallel trend analysis, and considerations of the sample time frame. The mechanism analysis shows that VATRP mitigates corporate financial fraud by alleviating motivational pressures, reducing opportunistic avenues, and negating rationalizations effectively addressing the three foundational components of the fraud triangle. Further examinations reveal that the suppressive effects of VATRP are particularly significant among high-tech and private capital holding firms. Theoretically, this paper enriches the discourse on VATRP by linking it to corporate financial decision-making, thereby broadening the scope of existing literature. Practically, it provides substantive policy recommendations, suggesting how governments could strategically implement fiscal policies to curb corporate malfeasance.

本文以中国政府2018年发布的《财税〔2018〕70号》文件作为外生准自然实验，采用双重差分（difference-in-differences, DID）模型，考察增值税退税政策（value-added tax refund policy, VATRP）对企业财务造假的影响。实证结果稳健表明，VATRP能够显著抑制企业财务造假，该结论通过了安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配、平行趋势分析以及样本时间范围考量等一系列严格的稳健性检验。机制分析显示，VATRP通过缓解造假动机压力、缩减造假机会空间、消除造假合理化借口，有效覆盖舞弊三角（fraud triangle）的三大核心构成要素，从而抑制企业财务造假。进一步研究发现，VATRP的抑制效应在高新技术企业与民营控股企业中尤为显著。理论层面，本文将增值税退税政策与企业财务决策相挂钩，丰富了关于VATRP的研究议题，拓展了现有文献的研究范畴；实践层面，本文为政府如何制定战略性财政政策以遏制企业违规失范行为提供了切实可行的政策建议。