Processed model data used for plots in Bondzio et al., GRL 2018

Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input datasets make
projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers
challenging. Here, we introduce a novel technique for weighing large
ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The
approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error
estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to
Jakobshavn Isbr\ae{}, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law,
and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 until 2018 by
forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection
suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about
5.1 mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic
forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will
strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting.