Winter-spring drought in Yunnan since the early 19th century and its impact on social governance in China’s southwestern border regions

Climate change and variability have been demonstrated in interdisciplinary scholarship to, in some cases, have play a noteworthy role in a number of aspects in human history. Many studies in the climate–history nexus concerns East Asia, but comparatively few the southwestern border areas of China. Although adverse climatic conditions have had profound environment and socio-economic impacts in this vast region, its effects on societal changes in the past remain poorly understood. Here, we present a consistent picture of the environment and socio-economic impacts of drought in the southwestern border areas of China. To this end, we developed a new precipitation reconstruction for the central Yunnan region over the 1814–2022 period. This reconstruction was used to evaluate the duration and severity of droughts. Additionally, we explored the relationship between extreme low precipitation and the outbreak of specific plague (Yersinia pestis) epidemics. Our findings reveal the presence of persistent drought conditions, which presumably contributed to economic and societal instability preceding the Du Wenxiu Uprising (杜文秀起义, 1856–1873), particularly impacting regions reliant on arable and pastoral agriculture. Large-scale peasant uprisings, concurring in time with drought, occurred in the mid-19th century against the backdrop of the repressive tax policies of the late Qing Dynasty. Two to three years after the onset of the Yunnan drought during the period 1814–1900, outbreaks of plague occurred and ongoing armed conflicts favored the spread of the disease. In conclusion, our reconstruction not only underscores the occurrence of recurrent multi-year drought conditions in the region but also suggests a potential key role for climate variability in shaping the socio-economic dynamics of this ecologically fragile area during the 19th century.

跨学科研究已证实，气候变化及其变率在某些情况下对人类历史的诸多层面均发挥了不容忽视的作用。当前气候-历史关联领域的众多研究聚焦于东亚，但针对中国西南边境地区的相关探讨则相对匮乏。尽管恶劣气候条件对这片广袤区域的生态环境与社会经济造成了深远影响，但过往学界对其在该地区社会变迁中所产生的作用仍知之甚少。本研究针对中国西南边境地区的干旱对生态环境及社会经济造成的影响，呈现了一套系统性的认知图景。为此，我们构建了1814年至2022年云南中部地区的全新降水重建序列，依托该序列对干旱的持续时长与严重程度开展了评估。此外，我们还探讨了极端降水偏少事件与特定鼠疫（Yersinia pestis，耶尔森氏菌）暴发之间的关联。研究结果显示，该区域曾长期处于干旱状态，这大概率加剧了1856-1873年杜文秀起义前的经济与社会动荡，尤其对依赖农耕与畜牧的地区造成了严重冲击。19世纪中期，在晚清严苛赋税政策的背景下，大规模农民起义与干旱事件同期爆发。在1814-1900年间的云南干旱暴发后的2至3年，鼠疫疫情便会出现，而持续的武装冲突则进一步助推了疫病的传播。综上，本研究构建的降水重建序列不仅证实了该区域曾反复出现连年干旱的情况，同时也揭示出19世纪气候变率可能在塑造这片生态脆弱区的社会经济动态过程中发挥了关键作用。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集提供了1814年至2022年云南中部地区的降水重建数据，用于分析冬春干旱的持续时间和严重程度，并探讨了干旱与社会治理的关联，包括其对19世纪经济不稳定、农民起义和鼠疫疫情爆发的影响。数据集由云南大学贡献，重点关注气候变化在中国西南边境地区历史社会动态中的作用。