Prioritisation of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and outputs of the analysis

Output data along with the deliverable report that focuses on identifying and prioritizing regions in Europe most vulnerable to climate change impacts. It introduces a comprehensive Climate Risk Index (CRI), which integrates multiple dimensions of risk, including climate hazards, exposure, and socio-economic vulnerability, at the NUTS-3 regional level. The analysis is informed by the latest IPCC methodologies and frameworks, incorporating data from sources like Eurostat, ESPON, and climate modeling projections for 2050 under two emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).

The CRI evaluates four specific impact chains: labor productivity, tourism, agriculture, and water scarcity. Each impact chain combines a hazard (e.g., heat stress, water imbalance) with its socio-economic consequences (e.g., reduced labor productivity or agricultural output). Indicators for exposure (e.g., population, employment), vulnerability (e.g., adaptive capacity, sensitivity), and hazards are normalized and weighted to calculate the CRI for each region.

Results highlight a clear spatial pattern of climate risk, with Southern and Eastern Europe (e.g., Spain, Italy, Greece, Romania) facing higher risks due to stronger hazards and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Key regions are identified for each impact chain, with agricultural-intensive and highly touristic areas, as well as urban regions, at greater risk. The report emphasizes the importance of using such indices to guide EU policy decisions, focusing on supporting regions most vulnerable to climate change impacts.

The methodology and findings aim to assist policymakers in prioritizing adaptation efforts and fostering resilience in the most affected regions. The CRI framework is adaptable, allowing integration of new data and indicators as they become available, making it a vital tool for future climate resilience planning across Europe.