IMPACT OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

The shadow economy remains a persistent and complex phenomenon affecting both developing and developed countries. This study examines the impact of the shadow economy on economic growth by analyzing its theoretical foundations, determinants, and macroeconomic consequences. While informal economic activities may provide income opportunities and reduce short-term unemployment pressures, they simultaneously weaken fiscal capacity, reduce tax revenues, distort competition, and undermine institutional development. Using comparative analysis and macroeconomic indicators, the article evaluates both the positive and negative channels through which the shadow economy influences gross domestic product (GDP), investment climate, public finance stability, and long-term sustainable growth. The findings suggest that although the shadow economy may temporarily stimulate consumption and employment, its overall long-term effect on economic growth is predominantly negative due to reduced productivity, limited access to formal financial systems, and weakened governance structures. The study concludes with policy recommendations aimed at reducing the size of the shadow economy through institutional reforms, tax system optimization, digitalization, and improved regulatory frameworks.影子经济（shadow economy）仍是一种持续存在且兼具复杂性的现象，对发展中国家与发达国家均产生影响。本研究通过剖析影子经济的理论基础、决定因素与宏观经济后果，探讨其对经济增长的影响。非正式经济活动虽可创造收入机会、缓解短期失业压力，但同时会削弱财政能力、缩减税收收入、扭曲市场竞争，并阻碍制度建设。本文采用比较分析方法与宏观经济指标，评估影子经济影响国内生产总值（gross domestic product，GDP）、投资环境、公共财政稳定性及长期可持续增长的正负双向传导路径。研究结果表明，尽管影子经济可在短期内刺激消费与带动就业，但由于生产率下降、正规金融体系准入受限以及治理结构弱化，其对经济增长的整体长期效应仍以负面为主。本研究最后提出政策建议，旨在通过制度改革、税收体系优化、数字化建设及完善监管框架，缩小影子经济的规模。