Data from: A spatially integrated framework for assessing socioecological drivers of carnivore decline

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are key threats to the long-term persistence of carnivores, which are also susceptible to direct persecution by people. Integrating natural and social science methods to examine how habitat configuration/quality and human–predator relations may interact in space and time to effect carnivore populations within human-dominated landscapes will help prioritise conservation investment and action effectively.

We propose a socioecological modelling framework to evaluate drivers of carnivore decline in landscapes where predators and people coexist. By collecting social and ecological data at the same spatial scale, candidate models can be used to quantify and tease apart the relative importance of different threats.

We apply our methodological framework to an empirical case study, the threatened güiña (Leopardus guigna) in the temperate forest ecoregion of southern Chile, to illustrate its use. Existing literature suggests that the species is declining due to habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution in response to livestock predation. Data used in modelling were derived from four seasons of camera-trap surveys, remote-sensed images and household questionnaires.

Occupancy dynamics were explained by habitat configuration/quality covariates rather than by human–predator relations. Güiñas can tolerate a high degree of habitat loss (>80% within a home range). They are primarily impacted by fragmentation and land subdivision (larger farms being divided into smaller ones). Ten per cent of surveyed farmers (N = 233) reported illegally killing the species over the past decade.

Synthesis and applications. By integrating ecological and social data, collected at the same spatial scale, within a single modelling framework, our study demonstrates the value of an interdisciplinary approach to assessing the potential threats to a carnivore. It has allowed us to tease apart effectively the relative importance of different potential extinction pressures for the güiña (Leopardus guigna), make informed conservation recommendations and prioritise where future interventions should be targeted. We have identified that human-dominated landscapes with large intensive farms can be of conservation value, as long as an appropriate network of habitat patches is maintained within the matrix. Conservation efforts to secure the long-term persistence of the species should focus on reducing habitat fragmentation rather than human persecution.

栖息地丧失、片段化与退化是食肉动物长期存续的核心威胁，这类动物同时也极易遭受人类的直接迫害。整合自然科学与社会科学方法，探究在人类主导的景观中，栖息地配置/质量与人-捕食者关系如何在时空维度上相互作用，进而影响食肉动物种群，将有助于高效确定保护投入与行动的优先级。
我们提出一套社会生态建模框架，用以评估捕食者与人类共存的景观中食肉动物种群衰退的驱动因素。通过在相同空间尺度下采集社会与生态数据，可借助候选模型量化并厘清不同威胁的相对重要性。
我们将该方法框架应用于一项实证案例研究——智利南部温带森林生态区内的濒危南美林猫（güiña，Leopardus guigna），以展示其应用方式。现有研究表明，该物种种群衰退源于栖息地丧失、片段化，以及因捕食家畜而引发的人类迫害。
建模所用数据源自四个季度的相机陷阱（camera-trap）调查、遥感影像与农户问卷调研。
种群占据动态主要由栖息地配置/质量协变量解释，而非人-捕食者关系。南美林猫可耐受较高程度的栖息地丧失（家域范围内丧失比例可达80%以上），其受影响的主要因素为栖息地片段化与土地细分（即大型农场被分割为小型地块）。在受访的233户农户中，有10%的农户称在过去十年间曾非法猎杀该物种。
综合与应用。本研究通过在统一建模框架内整合同空间尺度下采集的生态与社会数据，证实了跨学科方法在评估食肉动物潜在威胁方面的价值。借此我们得以有效厘清南美林猫（Leopardus guigna）所面临的各类潜在灭绝压力的相对重要性，进而提出科学合理的保护建议，并明确未来干预工作的优先实施区域。我们发现，只要在景观基质中维持合理的栖息地斑块网络，包含大型集约化农场的人类主导景观仍可具备保护价值。为保障该物种的长期存续，保护工作应聚焦于减少栖息地片段化，而非针对人类迫害行为。