Climate determinants of breeding and wintering ranges of lesser kestrels in Italy and predicted impacts of climate change

Climate warming would theoretically create conditions for the breeding range expansion of pseudo-steppe Mediterranean and long-distance migrant species and provide the possibility for these to overwinter in the same breeding areas. However, contemporary changes in rainfall regimes might have negative effects on the climate suitability and in turn, shrink species potential range. The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni is highly sensitive to rainfall oscillations and has recently extended its Italian breeding range towards northern latitudes and increasing its wintering records. We modelled the effects of temperature and rainfall on current and future climate suitability for lesser kestrels in both the breeding and wintering periods by using MaxEnt. Models were based on the distribution of 298 colonies and 40 wintering records. Future climate suitability was assessed under eight different scenarios.

Spring rainfall amount resulted as the main determinant of breeding climate suitability, so ...

气候变暖理论上可为地中海假草原物种与长距离迁徙鸟类的繁殖分布区扩张提供适宜条件，并赋予其在原繁殖区越冬的可能性。然而，当前降雨格局的变化可能会降低气候适宜性，进而压缩物种的潜在分布范围。红脚隼（Falco naumanni）对降雨波动极为敏感，近期其在意大利的繁殖分布区已向北纬地区拓展，越冬观测记录也持续增加。本研究借助最大熵模型（MaxEnt），模拟了温度与降雨对红脚隼繁殖期和越冬期当前及未来气候适宜性的影响；模型基于298个繁殖集群的分布数据与40条越冬观测记录构建，并在八种不同气候情景下评估了未来气候适宜性。
春季降雨量被确定为影响繁殖期气候适宜性的核心驱动因子，因此……