Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA

Anticipating plausible future ecosystem states is necessary for effective ecosystem management. We use climate analog-based impact models and a co-production process with land managers to project future vegetation changes for the state of Oregon, United States (2041-2070, RCP 8.5) at a management-relevant spatial resolution (270 meters). We explored multiple analog-based methodologies, evaluated analog model performance with contemporary validation, and leveraged climate analogs to assess projection uncertainty by quantifying areas where multiple vegetation trajectories are plausible under a single climate scenario. We find that analog-based models performed well at reproducing landscape-level vegetation composition, and moderately well at reproducing vegetation at the pixel level. Our results suggest that 64 % of the study area will experience future climate conditions that support different potential natural vegetation types, and 59 % will experience climates corresponding with differ..., , # Data from: Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20)

## Description of the data and file structure

Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA Anticipating plausible future ecosystem states is necessary for effective ecosystem management.

### Files and variables

All rasters and files containing coordinates use the NAD 1983 USFS R6 Albers projection.

#### File: analog_locations.zip

**Description:** A collection of files with coordinates of focal (focal_x, focal_y) and analog pixels (analog_x, analog_y). These files can be used to make analog-based climate impact projections using additional data layers/other vegetation layers. 

#### File: analog_count.tiff

**Description:** number of analogs found for each focal pixel (maximum 100). 

#### File: mean_distance2analog.tiff

**Description:** Mean distance (in kilometers) between focal pixe...,

预估符合现实可能性的未来生态系统状态，是开展有效生态系统管理的必要前提。本研究采用基于气候相似点（Climate Analog）的影响模型，结合与土地管理者协同共创的流程，针对美国俄勒冈州（2041-2070年，RCP 8.5），以契合管理需求的空间分辨率（270米）预估未来植被变化。我们探索了多种基于气候相似点的方法学，通过当代时段验证评估了相似点模型的性能，并利用气候相似点，通过量化单一气候情景下存在多种植被变化轨迹可能性的区域，来评估预测不确定性。研究发现，基于气候相似点的模型在复现景观尺度植被组成方面表现良好，在像元尺度植被复现方面表现中等。结果显示，研究区域64%的范围将迎来支持不同潜在自然植被类型的未来气候条件，另有59%的区域将面临对应于不同……的气候条件。
# 数据来源：美国俄勒冈州气候变化或将驱动植被带大规模迁移

数据集DOI：[10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pzgmsbd20)

## 数据与文件结构说明
美国俄勒冈州气候变化或将驱动植被带大规模迁移；预估符合现实可能性的未来生态系统状态，是开展有效生态系统管理的必要前提。

### 文件与变量
所有栅格文件及包含坐标的文件均采用NAD 1983 USFS R6阿尔伯斯投影坐标系。

#### 文件：analog_locations.zip
**描述：** 包含焦点像元（focal_x, focal_y）与相似点像元（analog_x, analog_y）坐标的文件集合。此类文件可结合其他数据图层/植被图层，用于生成基于气候相似点的气候影响预测。

#### 文件：analog_count.tiff
**描述：** 每个焦点像元对应的相似点数量（最大值为100）。

#### 文件：mean_distance2analog.tiff
**描述：** 焦点像元至各相似点的平均距离（单位：千米）。后续内容未完成……