Replication Data for: Understanding Biden’s Exit and the 2024 Election: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Our 2020 analysis correctly forecasted Biden’s victory and the outcome of every state except for Georgia. That forecast relied on economic data from 125 days prior to the election and presidential approval data from 104 days (or more) before the election. Since 2000, our model would have correctly forecasted the winner in 95% of all states. We have updated our State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model for 2024. This article summarizes the model and its historical accuracy as well as new data updates. We then generate forecasts for the overall two-party popular vote, each state’s outcome, and Electoral College winner for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 100 days prior to the election, our model forecasts a split popular vote (50.3% for Trump, 49.7% for Harris), but a notable Trump advantage in the Electoral College, with just under a 3 in 4 chance Trump wins the Election. This Republican advantage 100 days prior to Election Day sheds light on Biden’s abrupt decision to drop out of the race and suggests that if Harris wins, she will have overcome extremely challenging fundamentals and/or Donald Trump and the Republican Party will have squandered a sizeable Electoral College advantage.