Wolbachia frequency data from: Why did the Wolbachia transinfection cross the road? Drift, deterministic dynamics and disease control

Maternally inherited Wolbachia transinfections are being introduced into natural mosquito populations to reduce the transmission of dengue, Zika and other arboviruses. Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility provides a frequency-dependent reproductive advantage to infected females that can spread transinfections within and among populations. However, because transinfections generally reduce host fitness, they tend to spread within populations only after their frequency exceeds a critical threshold. This produces bistability with stable equilibrium frequencies at both 0 and 1, analogous to the bistability produced by underdominance between alleles or karyotypes and by population dynamics under Allee effects. Here, we analyze how stochastic frequency variation produced by finite population size can facilitate the local spread of variants with bistable dynamics into areas where invasion is unexpected from deterministic models. Our exemplar is the establishment of wMel Wolbachia in th...

母系遗传的沃尔巴克氏体（Wolbachia）转感染品系正被引入自然蚊媒种群，以降低登革热、寨卡病毒及其他虫媒病毒的传播。沃尔巴克氏体诱导的细胞质不相容性（cytoplasmic incompatibility）可赋予感染雌蚊频率依赖性生殖优势，使其能够在种群内部及种群间扩散转感染品系。然而，由于转感染通常会降低宿主适合度，这类品系往往仅当其种群频率超过临界阈值后，才能在种群内实现扩散。这一过程会形成双稳态（bistability），其稳定平衡频率分别为0和1，这与等位基因或核型（karyotypes）间显性不足（underdominance）所产生的双稳态，以及阿利效应（Allee effects）下的种群动态所呈现的双稳态类似。本文分析了有限种群规模所产生的随机频率波动，如何助力具备双稳态动态的变异体，在确定性模型预测下本难以实现入侵的区域完成局部扩散。我们的研究范例为wMel沃尔巴克氏体（wMel Wolbachia）在……